Establishment of a Nomogram for Predicting the Surgical Difficulty of Anterior Cervical Spine Surgery

Abstract

Background. For a long time, surgical difficulty is mainly evaluated based on subjective perception rather than objective indexes. Moreover, the lack of systematic research regarding the evaluation of surgical difficulty potentially has a negative effect in this field. This study was aimed to evaluate the risk factors for the surgical difficulty of anterior cervical spine surgery (ACSS).Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study totaling 291 consecutive patients underwent ACSS from 2012.3 to 2017.8. The surgical difficulty of ACSS was defined by operation time longer than 120 min or intraoperative blood loss equal to or greater than 200ml. Evaluation of risk factors was performed by analyzing the patient’s medical records and radiological parameters such as age, sex, BMI, number of operation levels, high signal intensity of spinal cord on T2-weighted images, ossified posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL), sagittal and coronal cervical circumference, cervical length, spinal canal occupational ratio, coagulation function index and platelet count.Results. Significant differences were reported between low-difficulty and high-difficulty ACSS groups in terms of age (p=0.017), sex (p=0.006), number of operation levels (p<0.001), high signal intensity (p<0.001), OPLL (p<0.001) and spinal canal occupational ratio (p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that number of operation levels (OR=5.224, 95%CI=2.125-12.843, p<0.001), high signal intensity of spinal cord (OR=4.994, 95%CI=1.636-15.245, p=0.005), OPLL (OR=6.358, 95%CI=1.932-20.931, p=0.002) and the spinal canal occupational ratio>0.45 (OR=3.988, 95%CI=1.343-11.840, p=0.013) were independently associated with surgical difficulty in ACSS. A nomogram was established and ROC curve gave a 0.906 C-index. There was a good calibration curve for difficulty estimation.Conclusion. This study indicated that the operational level, OPLL, high signal intensity of spinal cord, and spinal canal occupational ratio were independently associated with surgical difficulty and a predictive nomogram can be established using the identified risk factors. Optimal performance was achieved for predicting surgical difficulty of ACSS based on preoperative factors.