Establishment and validation of a prediction model for vaginal delivery after cesarean and its pregnancy outcomes—Based on a prospective study

Lin, Jing; Hou, Yingyong; Ke, Yiling; Zeng, Weijian; Gu, Wei

doi:10.1016/j.ejogrb.2019.09.015

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We found a positive correlation between Bishop's score and success of TOLAC, consistent with Francis (2005) who demonstrated a relationship between risk of cesarean delivery and unfavorable Bishop score at admission [25]. Similarly, several related studies have confirmed that the Bishop's score, at delivery, affects the success rate of TOLAC [17,26]. In the present study, the OR of Bishop's score was higher, with a relatively narrower confidence interval than that reported in previous studies (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 2.49 to 4.55).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Southeast China: a retrospective cohort study

Zhang

Zheng

Cheng

et al. 2020

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

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Background We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for effective prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) and guide future clinical application. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from hospitalized pregnant women who underwent trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC), at the Fujian Provincial Maternity and Children’s Hospital, between October 2015 and October 2017. Briefly, we included singleton pregnant women, at a gestational age above 37 weeks who underwent a primary cesarean section, in the study. We then extracted their sociodemographic data and clinical characteristics, and randomly divided the samples into training and validation sets. We employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select variables and construct VBAC success rate in the training set. Thereafter, we validated the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. Finally, we adopted the Grobman’s model to perform comparisons with published VBAC prediction models. Results Among the 708 pregnant women included according to inclusion criteria, 586 (82.77%) patients were successfully for VBAC. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that maternal height (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19), maternal BMI at delivery (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.00), fundal height (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.88), cervix Bishop score (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 2.49 to 4.45), maternal age at delivery (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.98), gestational age (OR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.17 to 0.62) and history of vaginal delivery (OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.42 to 6.48) were independently associated with successful VBAC. The constructed predictive model showed better discrimination than that from the Grobman’s model in the validation series (c-index 0.906 VS 0.694, respectively). On the other hand, decision curve analysis revealed that the new model had better clinical net benefits than the Grobman’s model. Conclusions VBAC will aid in reducing the rate of cesarean sections in China. In clinical practice, the TOLAC prediction model will help improve VBAC’s success rate, owing to its contribution to reducing secondary cesarean section.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Southeast China: a retrospective cohort study

Zhang

Zheng

Cheng

et al. 2020

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

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“…that both a spontaneous labor onset and Bishop score were associated with a successful VBAC. 24 Both of these variables need to be assessed upon patients' admission to the hospital, suggesting that health care providers need to reevaluate patients' eligibility for VBAC based on whether or not the patient had a spontaneous labor onset and their Bishop score when admitted.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth After a Primary Cesarean Section in Women with an Optimal Inter-Delivery Interval

Maroyi

Bahaya²,

Moureau³

et al. 2021

IJWH

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Purpose: We sought to determine the success rate of VBAC and factors associated with achieving VBAC at a referral hospital in the Democratic Republic of Congo in women with a subsequent pregnancy greater than or equal to 18 months from their primary cesarean section (CS). Patients and Methods: Patients were included for participation if they had an interdelivery interval (IDI) of at least 18 months from their primary CS, accepted TOLAC, and had no contraindications. Information was collected about patients' demographics, obstetric history, and factors impacting their labor process. Descriptive analyses compared patients that had a successful VBAC and those who did not. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression models identified factors associated with a successful VBAC. Results: Among 231 eligible patients who attempted a VBAC, 57.6% (133) achieved VBAC. Participants had a mean age of 29 (SD 6), with the majority having a prior vaginal delivery (68.8%). VBAC was positively associated with a higher Bishop score (AOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02, 1.23) and a spontaneous labor onset (AOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.52, 6.17). VBAC was negatively associated with a macrosomic fetus (AOR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08, 0.58). Conclusion: TOLAC results in VBAC more than half the time and is associated with a spontaneous labor onset and a higher Bishop score. Women with a macrosomic fetus were more likely to have an unsuccessful VBAC, resulting in an RCS. An optimal IDI was not enough to ensure a successful VBAC. Upon patients' arrival to the hospital, practitioners should re-evaluate their eligibility to attempt a VBAC based on their Bishop score and if they had a spontaneous labor onset to decrease the health risks of an RCS.

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“…Despite this, eight (8/17, 47%) of these unvalidated models were stated to be suitable for clinical use by their authors. 13–20…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite this, eight (8/17, 47%) of these unvalidated models were stated to be suitable for clinical use by their authors. [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] Five of the externally validated Grobman 2007 models altered the ethnicity predictor to reflect their population (eg, Annessi et al replaced Latina with Asian). These models are highlighted as Grobman 2007* in Table 1.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Models for Estimating the Probability of Successful Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery

Black

Henderson

Wattar

et al. 2022

Obstetrics &Amp; Gynecology

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Establishment and validation of a prediction model for vaginal delivery after cesarean and its pregnancy outcomes—Based on a prospective study

Cited by 8 publications

References 24 publications

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Southeast China: a retrospective cohort study

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Southeast China: a retrospective cohort study

Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth After a Primary Cesarean Section in Women with an Optimal Inter-Delivery Interval

Predictive Models for Estimating the Probability of Successful Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery

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