Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop-drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat

Abstract

As an essential component of drought risk, crop-drought vulnerability refers to the degree of 10 the adverse response of a crop to a drought event. Different drought intensities and environments can cause significant differences in crop yield losses. Therefore, quantifying the drought vulnerability and then identifying its spatial distribution pattern will contribute to understanding vulnerability and the development of risk-reduction strategies. We select the European winter wheat growing area as the study area and 0.5°×0.5° grids as the basic assessment units. Winter wheat drought vulnerability curves are 15 established based on the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator model simulation. Their loss transmutation and loss extent characteristics are quantitatively analysed by the key points and cumulative loss rate, respectively, and are then synthetically identified VIA K-means clustering. The results show the following. (1) The regional yield loss rate starts to rapidly increase from 0.13 when the drought index reaches 0.18 and then converts to a relatively stable stage with the value of 0.74 when the drought index 20 reaches 0.66. (2) The stage transitions of the vulnerability curve lag in the southern mountain area, indicating a stronger tolerance to drought in the system, in contrast to the Pod Plain. (3) According to the loss characteristics during the initial, development and attenuation stages, the vulnerability curves can be divided into five clusters, namely, Low-Low-Low, Low-Low-Medium, Medium-Medium-Medium, High-High-High and Low-Medium-High loss types, corresponding to the spatial distribution from low 25 latitude to high latitude and from mountain to plain. It is recommended to improve the integrated mitigation capability in the Medium-Medium-Medium and High-High-High loss type areas and to develop the ability to mitigate droughts in the 0.3-0.6 intensity range, as non-engineering measures for the droughts greater than 0.6 intensity in Low-Medium-High loss type areas.

Impacts of Climate Change on Farm Based Livelihood: A Study of Panchkhal

“…Drought becomes a serious danger to future food security in the context of climate change, requiring better drought planning, monitoring, and mitigation measures (Wu et al, 2019;Hayes et al, 2011). However, there are still little attempts to lessen the effects of future droughts, which emphasizes the need for paradigm shifts in approaches to managing drought risk (Reid et al, 2006;Li et al, 2009;Mishra andSingh, 2010 as cited in Wu et al, 2019).…”