Establishing priorities for Pennsylvania community flood resilience

Iulo, Lisa D.; Arora, Aashna; Fowler, Lara B.; Goldberg, Lacey K.; Helgeson, Casey; Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E.; Sharma, Sanjib; Tebyanian, Nastaran; Tuana, Nancy; Zarekarizi, Mahkameh

doi:10.31235/osf.io/qa4z7

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…There (Armstrong et al 2014;Smith et al 2010Smith et al , 2011. There is a critical need to better understand future flood risks in Pennsylvania (Iulo et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Sharma

Gomez

Keller

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.

show abstract

“…There (Armstrong et al 2014;Smith et al 2010Smith et al , 2011. There is a critical need to better understand future flood risks in Pennsylvania (Iulo et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Sharma

Gomez

Keller

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Following a common approach in flood risk analysis, we adopt a case study approach (Apel et al, 2004;de Moel et al, 2014;de Moel and Aerts, 2011;Tate et al, 2015;Yu et al, 2013). Specifically we demonstrated the workflow for Selinsgrove, a rural riverine community in Pennsylvania in the Eastern U.S., where damaging and frequent riverine floods pose considerable concerns (Iulo et al, 2022; "Selinsgrove Flood Timeline -Selinsgrove Projects,"). Our specific results depend, of course, on the local conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Drives Uncertainty Surrounding Riverine Flood Risks?

Hosseini-Shakib,

Alipour,

Lee

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flooding drives considerable risks. Designing strategies to manage these risks is complicated by the often large uncertainty surrounding flood risk projections. Uncertainty surrounding riverine flood risks can stem from choices regarding boundary conditions, model structures, and parameters as well as interactions among hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities. Flood risk assessment involves multiple research disciplines including the fields of atmospheric science, hydrology, and socioeconomics. A quantitative understanding of which factors contribute most to uncertainties surrounding flood hazards and risks can inform the design of mission-oriented research. Here we analyze a case study to rank the drivers of uncertainties surrounding riverine flood hazards and risks. We find that the projected flood risk is most sensitive to factors associated with flood hazards, rather than exposure and vulnerability: upstream discharge, river bed elevation, channel roughness, and the digital elevation model resolution. Our framework and results can help to improve flood-hazard and risk projections.

show abstract

“…1). We demonstrate the approach for a case study in Selinsgrove, a rural riverine community in Pennsylvania in the Eastern U.S., where damaging and frequent riverine floods pose considerable concerns 31,32 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hazards are the key drivers of uncertainties surrounding riverine flood risks

Hosseini‐Shakib

Alipour

Lee

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flooding drives considerable risks. Designing strategies to manage these risks is complicated by the often-large uncertainty surrounding flood risk projections. Uncertainty surrounding riverine flood risks can stem, for example, from choices regarding boundary conditions, model structures, and parameters as well as interactions among hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities. A quantitative understanding of which factors drive uncertainties surrounding flood hazards and risks can inform the design of mission-oriented research. Here we analyze a case study to (i) characterize key uncertainties impacting flood risk projections and (ii) characterize the most important drivers of the uncertainties surrounding riverine flood hazards and risks. We find that the projected flood risk is most sensitive to factors associated with flood hazards: upstream discharge, riverbed elevation, channel roughness, and the digital elevation model resolution. Our framework and results can help to improve flood-hazard and risk projections.

show abstract

Establishing priorities for Pennsylvania community flood resilience

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

What Drives Uncertainty Surrounding Riverine Flood Risks?

Hazards are the key drivers of uncertainties surrounding riverine flood risks

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About