Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease?

Larsen, Erling Røed

doi:10.1111/j.1536-7150.2006.00476.x

Cited by 158 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…That is, an unexpected positive innovation in oil activity increases GDP in Mainland Norway in all VAR specifications (Panel c), but the shock explains a negligible share of the variance in the GDP of Mainland Norway (3-6 percent, see Panel f). This is at odds with conventional wisdom, earlier research (see, e.g., Bjørnland (1998) and Larsen (2006)), and most important, the National Account statistics described above. However, the positive and large effects of a world activity shock (Panels a and d) is in accordance with new and existing evidence of international business cycle synchronization, see, e.g., , Stock and Watson (2005b), and Thorsrud (2013).…”

Section: Quantifying the Resource Boom -A Simple Attemptmentioning

confidence: 81%

Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in a Two-Speed Economy

Bjjrnland

Thorsrud

2013

SSRN Journal

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Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productivity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables at the sectoral level, while also identifying disturbances to the real oil price, global demand and non-oil activity. Using Norway as a representative case study, we find that a booming energy sector has substantial spillover effects on the non-oil sectors. Furthermore, windfall gains due to changes in the real oil price also stimulates the economy, but primarily if the oil price increase is caused by global demand. Oil price increases due to, say, supply disruptions, while stimulating activity in the technologically intense service sectors and boosting government spending, have small spillover effects on the rest of the economy, primarily because of reduced cost competitiveness. Yet, there is no evidence of Dutch disease. Instead, we find evidence of a two-speed economy, with non-tradables growing at a much faster pace than tradables. Our results suggest that traditional Dutch disease models with a fixed capital stock and exogenous labor supply do not provide a convincing explanation for how petroleum wealth affects a resource rich economy when there are productivity spillovers between sectors.

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Section: Quantifying the Resource Boom -A Simple Attemptmentioning

confidence: 81%

Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in a Two-Speed Economy

Bjjrnland

Thorsrud

2013

SSRN Journal

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“…This section analyzes the Nordic model from "within", by focusing on the comparative effect on the Norwegian economy of the huge inflow of resource revenues that started approximately around 1975 (as documented in Larsen, 2006). Results from recent research will be reviewed, in addition to novel empirical evidence.…”

Section: The Impact From Resource Revenues: the Case Of Norwaymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Nordic Model of Economic Development: Shocks, Reforms and Future Prospects

Iacono¹

2017

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractThe aim of this research is to provide novel evidence regarding the functioning of the Nordic model of economic development and the robustness of its institutions. At first, the paper defines a conceptual analytical framework identifying the key features of the model for the Nordic economies (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), by synthesizing relevant background literature. Secondly, this framework is used to interpret a set of shocks, reforms and ongoing trends: the effect of resource revenues on the labor market and income inequality in Norway compared to the other Nordic countries; the design of a novel minimum income scheme in Finland and its effects on preferences for social insurance; and the implications of population ageing and increased automation for indicators of sustainability for the Nordic welfare states.

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“…[ Figure 1 here] Historically, much of the socio-economic literature concerned with fossil fuels has focused on the broader macro-economic effects of minerals and energy-led economic development calculated at the national scale, such as the widelyrecognised phenomenon summarised as the 'Dutch Disease' (Larsen, 2006;Reeson et al, 2012). The macro-economic effects of unconventional fossil fuels have also been noteworthy for national energy markets in places such as the USA and Australia, with broader implications for the global energy system resulting from changes to supply generated in different regions of the world (Johnson and Boersma, 2013;Simshauser and Nelson, 2015).…”

Section: An Expanding Global Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model of the socioeconomic impacts of unconventional fossil fuel extraction

Measham

Fleming

Schandl

2016

Global Environmental Change

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As global energy demand increases, the rapid expansion of the unconventional fossil fuel sector has triggered an urgent need for social, economic and policy research to understand and predict how this sector affects host communities and how governance systems can respond to changes presented by this sector. In response to this need, this paper addresses three linked objectives. The first is to review the literature on regional impacts of energy extraction, presented in the form of a framework of hierarchical effects. The second is to consider how these are playing out differently in the context of conventional compared with unconventional fossil fuels. The third is to draw attention to the institutional avenues for addressing these impacts, including an overview of the lessons from existing research on the human and policy dimensions associated with conventional energy industries. In particular, we consider the importance of multistakeholder dialogue, which plays an important role in how regions respond to the challenges brought about through extractive industries. Overall, we demonstrate that experiences from conventional energy development provide a useful starting point for navigating the human and policy dimensions of unconventional energy for host communities and discuss how these experiences differ when unconventional energy seeks to co-exist with other land uses such as agriculture. The paper draws attention to the dispersed nature of impacts (positive and negative) and how this may shape winners and losers from unconventional energy development, particularly in regions with pre-existing land uses such as agriculture.

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Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease?

Cited by 158 publications

References 28 publications

Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in a Two-Speed Economy

Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in a Two-Speed Economy

The Nordic Model of Economic Development: Shocks, Reforms and Future Prospects

A conceptual model of the socioeconomic impacts of unconventional fossil fuel extraction

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