Error Propagation in the Simulation of Atherosclerotic Plaque Growth and the Prediction of Atherosclerotic Disease Progression

Abstract

Assessments of coronary artery disease can be achieved using non-invasive computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA). CTCA can be further used for the 3D reconstruction of the coronary arteries and the development of computational models. However, image acquisition and arterial reconstruction introduce an error which can be propagated, affecting the computational results and the accuracy of diagnostic and prognostic models. In this work, we investigate the effect of an imaging error, propagated to a diagnostic index calculated using computational modelling of blood flow and then to prognostic models based on plaque growth modelling or binary logistic predictive modelling. The analysis was performed utilizing data from 20 patients collected at two time points with interscan period of six years. The collected data includes clinical and risk factors, biological and biohumoral data, and CTCA imaging. The results demonstrated that the error propagated and may have significantly affected some of the final outcomes. The calculated propagated error seemed to be minor for shear stress, but was major for some variables of the plaque growth model. In parallel, in the current analysis SmartFFR was not considerably affected, with the limitation of only one case located into the gray zone.