Abstract:A seasonal predictability barrier has long been noticed in ENSO forecasting with numerical models. Previous studies explored the impact of seasonal optimal initial perturbation evolutions in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on ENSO forecasting using the intermediate coupled model (ICM) via the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. In this paper, we investigate the joint effects of SSTA and sea level anomalies (SLA) from the perspective of the optimal growth initial error (OGE). Afte… Show more
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