Equilibrium dynamics of European pre-industrial populations: the evidence of carrying capacity in human agricultural societies

Fanta, Václav; Šálek, Miroslav; Zouhar, Jan; Sklenička, Petr; Storch, David

doi:10.1098/rspb.2017.2500

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…While human population sizes have followed long-term increasing trends, evidence for density-dependent effects and the relevance of local carrying capacities have been found in demographic data from pre-industrial European populations within individual settlements [27]. Continued population growth would then be brought about by an increase in the number of settlements or by regular increases in the carrying capacity, due to advances in society [27,28].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

Wodarz¹,

Stipp

Komarova³

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

AbstractHuman populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution. None of these approaches, including formal cultural evolutionary models of the demographic transitions, have addressed a possible direct causal relationship between a reduction in mortality and the subsequent decline in fertility. We provide mathematical models in which low mortality favors the cultural selection of low fertility traits. This occurs because reduced mortality slows turnover in the model, which allows the cultural transmission advantage of low fertility traits to out-race their reproductive disadvantage. For mortality to be a crucial determinant of outcome, a cultural transmission bias is required where slow reproducers exert higher social influence. Computer simulations of our models that allow for exogenous variation in the death rate can reproduce the central features of the demographic transition process, including substantial reductions in fertility within only 1-3 generations. A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels, if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To capture the patterns reported in reference [27], we consider a growing population that is subdivided into neighborhoods or demes (settlements). In each deme, we impose a carrying capacity and describe the local dynamics by ODE model (1).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

Wodarz¹,

Stipp

Komarova³

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Instabilities in the age structure can lead to oscillations as the population returns to equilibrium. The exact location of this point is determined by land availability and agricultural productivity (Fanta et al 2018b), which in turn are influenced by the social and technological factors internal to the population (Wood 1998).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Related to, but distinct from, the demographic saturation point is the idea of environmental "carrying capacity" or the maximum population supportable by food production in the local environment (Dewar 1984). The key variables determining environmental carrying capacity for preindustrial societies are, predictably, arable land area and potential agricultural productivity (Fanta et al 2018a). However, "carrying capacity" varies not only across environments but also among different cultures and time periods (Currie et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multilevel Simulation of Demography and Food Production in Ancient Agrarian Societies: A Case Study from Roman North Africa

Gauthier¹

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Feedbacks between population growth, food production, and the environment were central to the growth and decay of ancient agrarian societies. Population growth increases both the number of mouths a society must feed and the number of people working to feed them. The balance between these two forces depends on the population's age structure. Although age structure ultimately reflects individual fertility and mortality, it is households that make decisions about the production and consumption of food, and their decisions depend on interactions with all other households in a settlement. How do these organizational levels interact to influence population growth and regulation? Here, I present a multi-level agent-based model of demography, food production, and social interaction in agricultural societies. I use the model to simulate the interactions of individuals, households, and settlements in a food-limited environment, and investigate the resulting patterns of population growth. Using Roman North Africa as a motivating example, I illustrate how abstract properties like "carrying capacity" emerge from the concrete actions and interactions of millions of individual people. Looking forward, bottom-up simulations rooted in first principles of human behavior will be crucial for understanding the coevolution of preindustrial societies and their natural environments.

show abstract

“…The damaged ecosystems can only be saved by a totally complete change of the approach to agricultural production and consumption (Fanta, 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Development of Utilised Agricultural Area in EU Countries Subsidy Policy of the Czech Republic

Kabourková¹,

Stuchlý²

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the introductory part the authors deal with the importance of agricultural land, its influence on water management, on the production of food for inhabitants, the utilization of land in agriculture, the influence on the climatic condition and the global ecosystem. They point out the problems related to the reduction of agricultural areas and they quote opinions of selected environmental specialists. They mention the issue of the subsidies in the Czech Republic, their sources and accounting. In the next part the authors focus on the analysis of the reduction of and the situation in the utilized agricultural area in thousands of hectares in EU countries. For this purpose, they utilize historic statistical data on the quantity and structure of utilized agricultural area. They represent the respective time series in tables and figures, calculate and compare their average absolute changes (increments or reductions) and percentage coefficients of growth (decrease). These coefficients are also used for the establishment of simple predictions obtained by extrapolation methods and by means of the linear trend function. The comparison of the results from individual EU countries was also represented graphically. More advanced and exact forecast models, which also provide interval forecasts, not only point forecasts, are applied on the CR and its neighbours, on the EU and its largest countries, by means of SPPS software. Balanced values and forecasts for 5 successive periods since 2017 have been calculated and tabulated. Everything is represented by means of suitable figures. Key words: utilised agricultural area in EU countries, average annual changes in utilized agricultural area, average growth/reduction rate, forecasts of the condition of the utilized land, subsidies.

show abstract

Equilibrium dynamics of European pre-industrial populations: the evidence of carrying capacity in human agricultural societies

Cited by 10 publications

References 23 publications

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

Multilevel Simulation of Demography and Food Production in Ancient Agrarian Societies: A Case Study from Roman North Africa

Structural Development of Utilised Agricultural Area in EU Countries Subsidy Policy of the Czech Republic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About