Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2

Schlesinger, Michael E.

doi:10.1007/bf01277045

Cited by 90 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…Some informative background discussions (related to the carbon dioxide problem) have been given by Hansen and others (1981), Luther and Ellingson (1985), Hoffert and Flannery (1985), and also by Schlesinger (1986). It turned out that results in broad agreement with these studies could This is within the generally accepted range.…”

Section: Oerlemans: Simple Climate-glacier Modelsupporting

confidence: 76%

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

Oerlemans

1988

J. Glaciol.

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ABSTRACT. Glacier variations during the last few centuries have shown a marked coherence over the globe. Characteristic features are the maximum stand somewhere in the middle of the nineteenth century, and the steady retreat afterwards (with some minor interrruptions depending on the particular region). In many papers, qualitative statements have been made about the causes of these fluctuations. Lower temperatures associated with solar variability and/ or volcanic activity are the most popular explanations. In particular, the statistical relation between glacier activity and major volcanic eruptions appears to be strong.In this paper, an attempt is made to simulate recent glacier f1uctations with a physics-based model. A simple climate model, calculating perturbations of surface-radiation balance and air temperature (not necessarily in phase!), is coupled to a schematic time-dependent glacier model. The climate model is forced by volcanic activity (Greenland acidity and / or Lamb's dust-veil index) and greenhouse warming. Solar variability was not considered, because its effect on climate has still not been demonstrated in a convincing way. The output is translated into variations in equilibrium-line altitude, driving the glacier model.The simulated variations in glacier length show good agreement with the observed record, but the amplitude is too small. This is improved when mass-balance gradients are assumed to be larger in warmer climates. Compared to recently published modelling studies of particular glaciers, in which series of local parameters (e.g. tree-ring width and temperature) were used as forcing, the present simulation is better. This suggests that the radiation balance is a decisive factor with regard to glacier varIatIOns on longer time-scales. The model experiments lend support to the results of Porter (1986), who concluded from a more qualitative study that a strong relation exists between periods of increased volcanic activity and glacier advances.A comparison of some selected runs shows that, according to the present model, the greenhouse warming would be responsible for about 50% of the glacier relreal observed over Ihe I asl J 00 years.

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Section: Oerlemans: Simple Climate-glacier Modelsupporting

confidence: 76%

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

Oerlemans

1988

J. Glaciol.

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“…About half of the warming over the next few decades would occur even if the levels of atmospheric constituents and thus radiative forcing were held constant at year 2000 values (constant composition commitment; Meehl et al 2005;Wigley 2005;Meehl et al 2007). This commitment idea (i.e., that warming will continue even if the forcing is held constant) has been recognized long ago (Hansen et al 1984;Siegenthaler and Oeschger 1984;Wigley and Schlesinger 1985;Schlesinger 1986). Also, some climate feedbacks or nonlinear interactions only become important on longer time scales.…”

Section: A Probability Density Functions and Ranges From Individual mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

et al. 2008

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Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle-climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound.

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“…This approximation, or similar ones, have been studied since the 1970s (Wetherald and Manabe, 1975;Schlesinger, 1986). Some additional, substantial results are thus required to claim its validity for drawing conclusions about climate sensitivity in general.…”

Section: Zaliapin and M Ghil: Reply To Roe And Baker's Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reply to Roe and Baker's comment on "Another look at climate sensitivity" by Zaliapin and Ghil (2010)

Zaliapin

Ghil

2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. G. H. Roe and M. B. Baker (hereafter R&B)claim that analysis of a global linear approximation to the climate system allows one to conclude that the quest for reliable climate predictions is futile. We insist that this quest is important and requires a proper understanding of the roles of both linear and nonlinear methods in climate dynamics.We are grateful to R&B for their Comment (Roe and Baker, 2011, RB11 hereafter) on Zaliapin and Ghil (2010, ZG10 hereafter) and to this journal for an opportunity to reply. First off, we are glad to acknowledge an important point of agreement with R&B, in that Roe and Baker (2007, RB07 hereafter) do indeed apply a global linear relationship to understand climate response, by allowing its slope to have a normal distribution. This removes the main concern of ZG10, namely that a linear study was presented as an analysis of a general climate model with nonlinear feedbacks.RB11 correctly note that the "fact that the climate system is nonlinear does not preclude the use or value of linear analyses". The role of local linearization in studying the nonlinear equations of climate dynamics is well known (Ghil and Childress, 1987); what is less obvious is applicability of such a linearization over a wide range of parameter values.Correspondence to: I. Zaliapin (zal@unr.edu) Let us return to the second-order Taylor expansion of the atmospheric radiation function R = R(T ,α(T )):

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Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2

Cited by 90 publications

References 60 publications

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

Reply to Roe and Baker's comment on "Another look at climate sensitivity" by Zaliapin and Ghil (2010)

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Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2

Cited by 90 publications

References 60 publications

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

Reply to Roe and Baker's comment on &quot;Another look at climate sensitivity&quot; by Zaliapin and Ghil (2010)

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Reply to Roe and Baker's comment on "Another look at climate sensitivity" by Zaliapin and Ghil (2010)