Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility

Hester, Patrick T.

doi:10.1155/2012/617481

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In order to properly address this issue we considered OQR and FQR (Bello et al, 2021) and the seismological formal errors derived from our analyses (Seismological Data and Analysis; Supplementary Figure S5; Supplementary Tables S1, S2). Specifically, the two quality factors used to constrain the faults at the surface together with the high-sampling step (as recently suggested by Sgambato et al, 2020) helped reducing the subjectivity in the interpretation (e.g., Bond et al, 2007;Bond et al, 2011;Hester, 2012;Salisbury et al, 2015). With our approach it is possible to discern and further select the objective and subjective parts of our final model.…”

Section: Geometric Fault Modelmentioning

confidence: 95%

Fault Pattern and Seismotectonic Style of the Campania – Lucania 1980 Earthquake (Mw 6.9, Southern Italy): New Multidisciplinary Constraints

Bello¹,

Nardis²,

Scarpa

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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New fault trace mapping and structural survey of the active faults outcropping within the epicentral area of the Campania-Lucania 1980 normal fault earthquake (Mw 6.9) are integrated with a revision of pre-existing earthquake data and with an updated interpretation of the CROP-04 near-vertical seismic profile to reconstruct the surface and depth geometry, the kinematics and stress tensor of the seismogenic fault pattern. Three main fault alignments, organized in high-angle en-echelon segments of several kilometers in length, are identified and characterized. The inner and intermediate ones, i.e. Inner Irpinia (InIF) and Irpinia Faults (IF), dip eastward; the outer Antithetic Fault (AFA) dips westward. Both the InIF and the IF strike NW-SE along the northern and central segments and rotate to W-E along the southern segments for at least 16 km. We provide evidence of surface coseismic faulting (up to 1 m) not recognized before along the E-W segments and document coseismic ruptures with maximum vertical displacement up to ∼1 m where already surveyed from other investigators 40 years ago. Fault/slip data from surface data and a new compilation of focal mechanisms (1980 – 2018) were used for strain and stress analyses to show a coherent NNE-directed least principal stress over time and at different crustal depths, with a crustal-scale deviation from the classic SW-NE tensional direction across the Apennines of Italy. The continuation at depth of the outcropping faults is analyzed along the trace of the CROP-04 profile and with available hypocentral distributions. Integrating all information, a 3D seismotectonic model, extrapolated to the base of the seismogenic layer, is built. It outlines a graben-like structure with a southern E-W bend developed at depth shallower than 10–12 km, at the hanging wall of an extensional NE- to E-dipping extensional basal detachment. In our interpretation, such a configuration implies a control in the stress transfer during the 1980 earthquake ruptures and provides a new interpretation of the second sub-event, occurred at 20 s. Our reconstruction suggests that the latter ruptured a hanging wall NNE-dipping splay of the E-W striking main fault segment and possibly also an antithetic SSW-dipping splay, in two in-sequence episodes.

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Section: Geometric Fault Modelmentioning

confidence: 95%

Fault Pattern and Seismotectonic Style of the Campania – Lucania 1980 Earthquake (Mw 6.9, Southern Italy): New Multidisciplinary Constraints

Bello¹,

Nardis²,

Scarpa

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…There are sources of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the VS measurements 63 . While the aleatory uncertainty is considered to be irreducible, inherent and due to chance, the epistemic uncertainty is considered to be reducible, subjective and due to lack of knowledge 66 , 67 . The sources of these uncertainties are manifold.…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution surface faulting from the 1983 Idaho Lost River Fault Mw 6.9 earthquake and previous events

et al. 2021

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We present high-resolution mapping and surface faulting measurements along the Lost River fault (Idaho-USA), a normal fault activated in the 1983 (Mw 6.9) earthquake. The earthquake ruptured ~35 km of the fault with a maximum throw of ~3 m. From new 5 to 30 cm-pixel resolution topography collected by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, we produce the most comprehensive dataset of systematically measured vertical separations from ~37 km of fault length activated by the 1983 and prehistoric earthquakes. We provide Digital Elevation Models, orthophotographs, and three tables of: (i) 757 surface rupture traces, (ii) 1295 serial topographic profiles spaced 25 m apart that indicate rupture zone width and (iii) 2053 vertical separation measurements, each with additional textual and numerical fields. Our novel dataset supports advancing scientific knowledge about this fault system, refining scaling laws of intra-continental faults, comparing to other earthquakes to better understand faulting processes, and contributing to global probabilistic hazard approaches. Our methodology can be applied to other fault zones with high-resolution topographic data.

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“…Despite this accuracy of prediction, the high variability has led to uncertainty mainly due to the data scarcity and volatility of energy markets. Addressing this uncertainty of prediction has been researched in several other domains, and it can be theorised into two aspects, aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty [47]. Aleatory uncertainty is an uncertainty due to chance, also known as stochastic uncertainty, and it cannot be resolved with more data.…”

Section: Time-series Forecasting and Uncertainty Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Artificial Intelligence framework for bidding optimization with uncertainty in multiple frequency reserve markets

et al. 2020

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The global ambitions of a carbon-neutral society necessitate a stable and robust smart grid that capitalises on frequency reserves of renewable energy. Frequency reserves are resources that adjust power production or consumption in real time to react to a power grid frequency deviation. Revenue generation motivates the availability of these resources for managing such deviations. However, limited research has been conducted on data-driven decisions and optimal bidding strategies for trading such capacities in multiple frequency reserves markets. We address this limitation by making the following research contributions. Firstly, a generalised model is designed based on an extensive study of critical characteristics of global frequency reserves markets. Secondly, three bidding strategies are proposed, based on this market model, to capitalise on price peaks in multi-stage markets. Two strategies are proposed for non-reschedulable loads, in which case the bidding strategy aims to select the market with the highest anticipated price, and the third bidding strategy focuses on rescheduling loads to hours on which highest reserve market prices are anticipated. The third research contribution is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based bidding optimization framework that implements these three strategies, with novel uncertainty metrics that supplement data-driven price prediction. Finally, the framework is evaluated empirically using a case study of multiple frequency reserves markets in Finland. The results from this evaluation confirm the effectiveness of the proposed bidding strategies and the AI-based bidding optimization framework in terms of cumulative revenue generation, leading to an increased availability of frequency reserves.

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Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility

Cited by 11 publications

References 25 publications

Fault Pattern and Seismotectonic Style of the Campania – Lucania 1980 Earthquake (Mw 6.9, Southern Italy): New Multidisciplinary Constraints

Fault Pattern and Seismotectonic Style of the Campania – Lucania 1980 Earthquake (Mw 6.9, Southern Italy): New Multidisciplinary Constraints

High-resolution surface faulting from the 1983 Idaho Lost River Fault Mw 6.9 earthquake and previous events

An Artificial Intelligence framework for bidding optimization with uncertainty in multiple frequency reserve markets

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