Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Vezér, Martin A.; Bakker, A.; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9

Cited by 25 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…At the very least, methodological analysis of decision-support models inevitably raises the question of trade-off between epistemic and ethical considerations (e.g. Vezér et al, 2018). Given that many economic models are used for decision-support purposes, it is somewhat surprising how little methodological work there has been on the ethical robustness of economic modeling, as opposed to epistemic robustness, for example.…”

Section: How Should Methodologists Appraise Co-production In Economics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-production and economics: insights from the constructive use of experimental games in adaptive resource management

Nagatsu

2021

Journal of Economic Methodology

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I envision new directions in the methodology of experimental games in the field of developmental, environmental and resource economics. Although there have been extensive discussions on experimental practices in recent years, following Guala's [(2005). The methodology of experimental economics. Cambridge University Press] pioneering work, the methodology has narrowly focused on issues related to the internal and external validity of experimental results, in particular the extrapolation of results for policy. I introduce co-production as a popular perspective in the recent methodological discussion on sustainability science, and then I illustrate how it works in the familiar context of game-theoretic studies of common pool resource management. I then distinguish various ways in which methodologists could engage in the normative appraisal of co-production using economics, ranging from conservative to radical approaches.

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Section: How Should Methodologists Appraise Co-production In Economics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-production and economics: insights from the constructive use of experimental games in adaptive resource management

Nagatsu

2021

Journal of Economic Methodology

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“…Modelers have to know, or at least assume how future generations would change their behavior under different circumstances (Sondoss et al, 2020). Such a presumptuous approach might increase the epistemic uncertainties in the model (Vezér et al, 2018). The approach might underestimate the uncertainties of human behavioral systems and hence limit the potential representation of future generations.…”

Section: Future Research Agendamentioning

confidence: 99%

Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda

Jafino

Kwakkel

Taebi

2021

WIREs Climate Change

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Models for supporting climate adaptation and mitigation planning, mostly in the form of Integrated Assessment Models, are poorly equipped for aiding questions related to fairness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, because they often disregard distributional outcomes. When evaluating policies using such models, the costs and benefits are typically aggregated across all actors in the system, and over the entire planning horizon. While a policy may be beneficial when considering the aggregate outcome, it can be harmful to some people, somewhere, at some point in time. The practice of aggregating over all actors and over time thus gives rise to problems of justice; it could also exacerbate existing injustices. While the literature discusses some of these injustices in ad‐hoc and case specific manner, a systematic approach for considering distributive justice in model‐based climate change planning is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by proposing 11 requirements that an Integrated Assessment Model should meet in order to enable the assessment of distributive justice in climate mitigation and adaptation policies. We derive the requirements from various ethical imperatives stemming from the theory of distributive justice. More specifically, we consider both intra‐generational (among people within one generation) and intergenerational (between generations) distributive justice. We investigate to what extent the 11 requirements are being met in recent model‐based climate planning studies, and highlight several directions for future research to advance the accounting for distributive justice in model‐based support for climate change planning. This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Global Justice

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“…The broad-brush purpose of supporting climate risk management can be analyzed further in any particular instance to reveal specific non-epistemic concerns such as protecting livelihoods, preserving culture, and saving money and lives (Bessette et al, 2017;CPRAL, 2017). By judging models in light of purpose while also viewing these motivating values as a part of that purpose, the simplicity-complexity dimension of model choice can be seen as a coupled ethical-epistemic problem (Tuana, 2013(Tuana, , 2017Vezér et al, 2018) in which motivations and trade-offs encompass both epistemic and ethical values.…”

Section: Purpose and Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions

et al. 2021

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For computer simulation models to usefully inform climate risk management decisions, uncertainties in model projections must be explored and characterized. Because doing so requires running the model many times over, and because computing resources are finite, uncertainty assessment is more feasible using models that need less computer processor time. Such models are generally simpler in the sense of being more idealized, or less realistic. So modelers face a trade-off between realism and extent of uncertainty quantification. Seeing this trade-off for the important epistemic issue that it is requires a shift in perspective from the established simplicity literature in philosophy of science. IntroductionComputer simulation models are now essential tools in many scientific fields, and a rapidly-expanding philosophical literature examines a host of accompanying methodological and epistemological questions about their roles and uses (e.g.

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Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Cited by 25 publications

References 26 publications

Co-production and economics: insights from the constructive use of experimental games in adaptive resource management

Co-production and economics: insights from the constructive use of experimental games in adaptive resource management

Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda

Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions

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