Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important infectious viral disease of domestic small ruminants that threatens the food security and sustainable livelihood of farmers across Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The objective of this research is to analyze the disease’s spread and its impacts on direct government costs through conducting three simulations of different control strategies to reduce and quickly eradicate PPR from the United Arab Emirates in the near future. A Modified Animal Disease Spread Model was developed in this study to suit the conditions of the United Arab Emirates. The initial scenario represents when mass vaccination is ceased, and moderate movement restrictions are applied. The second scenario is based on mass vaccination and stamping out the disease, whereas the third simulation scenario assumes mass and ring vaccination when needed, very strict movement control, and stamping out. This study found that the third scenario is the most effective in controlling and eradicating PPR from the UAE. The outbreak duration in days was reduced by 57% and the number of infected animals by 77% when compared to the other scenarios. These results are valuable to the country’s animal health decision-makers and the government’s efforts to report to the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) regarding the progress made towards declaration of the disease’s eradication. They are also useful to other concerned entities in other Middle Eastern, North African, and Asian countries where the disease is spreading.

Epidemiological investigation of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Bahrain

“…In this study, the individual prevalence of PPR antibodies in goats and sheep was similar, while the herd prevalence in goats was significantly higher than that in sheep flocks. Similar findings were reported by several authors from the Middle East and Africa [7,14,[19][20][21][22][23]. The prevalence of PPR in Bahrain was lower than that reported in some of the neighboring countries.…”

Peste Des Petits Ruminants in the Middle East: Epidemiological Situation and Status of Control and Eradication Activities after the First Phase of the PPR Global Eradication Program (2017–2021)

“…In particular, sheep and goats are mostly imported from Australia (only sheep), India, East Africa (Somalia) and other Middle Eastern countries (Oman, Jordan) [ 27 ]. The importance of animal trade was also confirmed by Fathelrahman et al [ 100 ], who prepared an epidemiological model to evaluate the efficacy of different PPR eradication strategies for the UAE. Based on the obtained results, strict movement control greatly improved the efficacy of eradication efforts, in terms of reduction in outbreak duration and PPR spread, when compared to vaccination alone.…”

“…The national PPR control and eradication plan relies on a mass vaccination strategy, which was adopted in 2016 in the context of a broader Animal Health Plan [ 100 ]. Annual vaccination campaigns are conducted in sheep, goats and captive antelopes and target all animals older than 3 months, which are then revaccinated every three years.…”

Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model

“…Depending on the condition at a given point in time, the probability of direct and indirect contact of a given herd with other herds in the region and consequently the probability of infection of these herds are assessed. Te approach was implemented using the NAADSM (Te North American Animal Disease Spread Model) simulation model [18][19][20]. Te model also allows the inclusion of diferent control and prevention strategies (such as disease detection, contact tracing, zoning, and vaccination) and the assessment of their impact on the disease spread.…”