Epidemiological study of scarlet fever in Shenyang , China

Abstract

Background: Since 2011, there has been an increase in the incidence of scarlet fever across China. The main objective of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of the incidence of scarlet fever in Shenyang, China, in 2018 so as to provide the scientific basis for effective strategies of scarlet control and prevention. Methods: Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the month level and ArcGIS10.3 was used to demonstrate the spatial distribution at the district/county level. Moran’s autocorrelation coefficient was used to examine the spatial autocorrelation and the Getis-Ord statistic was used to determine the hot-spot areas of scarlet fever. Results: A total of 2,314 scarlet fever cases were reported in Shenyang in 2018 with an annual incidence of 31.24 per 100,000. The incidence among males was higher than that among females（p＜0.001). A vast majority of the cases (96.89%) were among children aged 3 to 11 years. The highest incidence was 625.34/100,000 in children aged 5-9 years. In 2018 there were two seasonal peaks of scarlet fever in June (summer-peak) and December (winter-peak).The incidence of scarlet fever in urban areas was significantly higher than that in rural areas(p＜0.001).The incidence of scarlet fever was randomly distributed in Shenyang. There are hotspot areas located in seven districts. Conclusions: Urban areas are the hot spots of scarlet fever and joint prevention and control measures between districts should be applied. Children aged 3-11 are the main source of scarlet fever and therefore the introduction of prevention and control into kindergarten and primary schools may be key to the control of scarlet fever epidemics.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and potential ecological drivers of acute respiratory infectious diseases: an example of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province

“…In our study, males outnumbered females in all patients, according to statistics, which is consistent with previous studies [20,39]. This can be explained by the risk of exposure, for example, men have more outdoor activities and unhygienic behaviors than women [21].…”

“…As for the spatiotemporal study of scarlet fever, most studies concentrated on dynamics of the epidemic part (e.g, epidemic from temporal aspect and epidemic from spatial aspect) [17][18][19][20], ignoring the endemic part (e.g, indirect transmission from the environment). And also they did not qualify the effect of covariates in different dimensions (i.e, time, space, and endemic).…”

Time series analysis and prediction of scarlet fever incidence trends in Jiangsu Province, China: using ARIMA and TBATS models

“…distribution pattern, with a 12-month cycle, with one peak from April to June and another peak is between December and January of the following year. These two peaks coincide with the local school term and are similar to other Chinese provinces [23,[25][26][27]. On the one hand, it may be considered that the number of scarlet fever cases rises gradually due to the fact that March or April is the start of the school year in China, with more contact between students [27,28].…”

“…Scarlet fever is the most common respiratory infectious disease in China, and its incidence level has been increasing in recent years with similar epidemic trends nationwide and worldwide [7,23] .The prevention and control of scarlet fever still face major challenges. Adequate understanding of the epidemiological trends of scarlet fever and predicting its incidence are important guidelines for the prevention and control of scarlet fever and the allocation of related medical resources.…”

Research status and prospect of wear and aging on hydraulic rubber sealing materials

“…Large Angle crack is most likely to crack propagation, while small Angle crack is easy to fold and curl during wear. Finally, the crack propagation path is perpendicular to the direction of the applied load, forming a tongue-crimped fracture [99].…”