Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic

Abstract

Background In February 2020, a locally-acquired COVID-19 case was detected in Lombardia, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The outbreak rapidly escalated to a national level epidemic, amid the WHO declaration of a pandemic. MethodsWe analysed data from the national case-based integrated surveillance system of all RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infections as of March 24 th 2020, collected from all Italian regions and autonomous provinces. Here we provide a descriptive epidemiological summary on the first 62,843 COVID-19 cases in Italy as well as estimates of the basic and net reproductive numbers by region.Findings Of the 62,843 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 71·6% were reported from three Regions (Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna). All cases reported after February 20 th were locally acquired. Estimates of R0 varied between 2·5 (95%CI: 2·18-2·83) in Toscana and 3 (95%CI: 2·68-3·33) in Lazio, with epidemic doubling time of 3·2 days (95%CI: 2·3-5·2) and 2.9 days (95%CI: 2·2-4·3), respectively. The net reproduction number showed a decreasing trend starting around February 20-25, 2020 in Northern regions. Notably, 5,760 cases were reported among health care workers. Of the 5,541 reported COVID-19 associated deaths, 49% occurred in people aged 80 years or above with an overall crude CFR of 8·8%. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death.Interpretation The COVID-19 infection in Italy emerged with a clustering onset similar to the one described in Wuhan, China and likewise showed worse outcomes in older males with comorbidities. Initial R0 at 2·96 in Lombardia, explains the high case-load and rapid geographical spread observed. Overall Rt in Italian regions is currently decreasing albeit with large diversities across the country, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.Funding: routine institutional funding was used to perform this work.

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

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“…We estimated the age-dependent risk of an infected case being admitted to CC by fitting our models to analyses of case data from China [5] and the United States (US) [6], with recently released Italian data [7] used in a sensitivity analysis (details in Supplement Chapter 1).…”

A Survey on Mental Health Impact Caused by COVID-19 Pandemic in Italian Pediatric Healthcare Workers.

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