Epidemiological Benchmarks of the COVID-19 Outbreak Control in China after Wuhan’s Lockdown: A Modelling Study with An Empirical Approach

Ku, Chu Chang; Ng, Ta-Chou; Lin, Hsien-Ho

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3544127

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…We found that we could match the emergence of the infection in Illinois with an R0 = 4.0 (annual average), latency = 5 days, infectious period = 3 days, seasonal forcing strength 0.2 and seasonal peak in January. This value is within the ranges reported in an extensive epidemiological study [10].…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 89%

Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Maslov

Goldenfeld

2020

Preprint

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 89%

Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Maslov

Goldenfeld

2020

Preprint

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“…To achieve this objective, it must be kept under the value of 1, which is difficult to reach especially if the undetected infections rate remains high (according to our results above, the undetected infections represent around 80% of actual infections in Algeria). For comparison, in Wuhan, china, the estimated R0 of COVID-19 after two months of the lockdown ranged from 1,66 (95% CI 0,72-2,87) (Ku, Ng, & Lin, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Course of COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria: Retrospective estimate of the actual burden

Hamidouche

Belmessabih

2020

Preprint

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Since December 2019, the five continents have been incrementally invaded by SARS-CoV-2. Africa is the last and least affected to date. However, Algeria is among the first countries affected since February 25, 2020. In order to benefit from its experience in the least affected countries, this study aims to describe the current situation of the epidemic and then retrospectively estimate its real burden. As a first part of the study, we described the indicators of the epidemic as; the cumulative and daily reported cases and deaths, and we computed the R0 evolution. Secondly, we used the New York City cases-fatality rate standardized by Algerian age structure, to retrospectively estimate the actual burden. We found that reported cases are in a clear diminution, but, the epidemic epicentre is moving from Blida to other cities. We noted a clear peak in daily cases-fatality from March 30, to April 17, 2020, Fig. 3, due to underestimating the actual infections of the first 25 days. Since May 8, 2020, the daily R0 is around one, Fig. 4. Moreover, we noticed 31% reduction of its mean value from 1,41 to 0,97 between the last two months. The Algerian Age-Standardized Infection Fatality Rate we found is 0,88%. Based on that, we demonstrated that only 1,5% of actual infections were detected and reported before March 30, and 20% after March 31, Fig. 5. Therefore, the actual infections burden is currently five times higher than reported. At the end, we found that at least 0,2 % of the population have been infected until May 27. Consequently, the acquired herd immunity to date is therefore not sufficient to avoid a second wave. We believe that, the under estimation of the actual burden of the epidemic is probably due to the lack of testing capacities, however, all the indicators show that the situation is currently controlled. This requires more vigilance for the next weeks during the gradual easing of the preventive measures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Course of COVID-19 Pandemic in Algeria: Retrospective Estimate of the Actual Burden

Hamidouche

Belmessabih

2020

Journal of Contemporary Studies in Epidemiology and Public Heal

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Since December 2019, the world has been incrementally invaded by SARS-CoV-2. Algeria is affected since February 25, 2020. In order to benefit from its experience, this study aims to describe the epidemic's current situation and then retrospectively estimate its real burden. First, we described the epidemic's indicators as; cases, deaths, and we computed the R0 evolution. Secondly, we used the New York City cases-fatality rate standardized by Algerian age structure, to retrospectively estimate the actual burden. The reported cases are in a clear diminution, but, the epidemic epicentre is moving from Blida to other cities. We noted a clear peak in daily cases-fatality from March 30, to April 17, 2020, due to underestimating the actual infections of the first 25 days. Since May 8, 2020, the daily R0 is around one. Moreover, we noticed 31% reduction of its mean value from 1,41 to 0,97 between the last two months. The Algerian Age-Standardized Infection Fatality Rate we found is 0,88%. Based on that, we demonstrated that only 1,5% of actual infections were detected and reported before March 30, and 20% after March 31. Therefore, the actual infections burden is currently five times higher than reported. At the end, we found that at least 0,2 % of the population have been infected until May 27. The under estimation of the epidemic's actual burden is probably due to the lack of testing capacities, however, all the indicators show that the situation is currently controlled.

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Epidemiological Benchmarks of the COVID-19 Outbreak Control in China after Wuhan’s Lockdown: A Modelling Study with An Empirical Approach

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Time Course of COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria: Retrospective estimate of the actual burden

Time Course of COVID-19 Pandemic in Algeria: Retrospective Estimate of the Actual Burden

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