Epidemic prevalence information on social networks can mediate emergent collective outcomes in voluntary vaccine schemes

Abstract

The effectiveness of a mass vaccination program can engender its own undoing if individuals choose to not get vaccinated believing that they are already protected by herd immunity. This would appear to be the optimal decision for an individual, based on a strategic appraisal of her costs and benefits, even though she would be vulnerable during subsequent outbreaks if the majority of the population argues in this manner. We investigate how voluntary vaccination can nevertheless emerge in a social network of rational agents, who make informed decisions whether to be vaccinated, integrated with a model of epidemic dynamics. The information available to each agent includes the prevalence of the disease in their local network neighborhood and/or globally in the population, as well as the fraction of their neighbors that are protected against the disease. Crucially, the payoffs governing the decision of agents vary with disease prevalence, resulting in the vaccine uptake behavior changing in response to contagion spreading. The collective behavior of the agents responding to local prevalence can lead to a significant reduction in the final epidemic size, particularly for less contagious diseases having low basic reproduction number . Near the epidemic threshold ( ) the use of local prevalence information can result in divergent responses in the final vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that heterogeneity in the risk perception resulting from the spatio-temporal evolution of an epidemic differentially affects agents’ payoffs, which is a critical determinant of the success of voluntary vaccination schemes.

Perceptions towards COVID-19 and adoption of preventive measures among the public in Saudi Arabia: a cross sectional study

“…Social media and websites of health authorities were effective means of spreading key Covid-19 related messages and as they were commonly used by many different population groups in Saudi Arabia. These communication channels should be used when promoting non-pharmaceutical interventions and Covid-19 vaccinations or treatment when available [ 48 – 50 ].…”

Perceptions Towards COVID-19 and Adoption of Preventive Measures Among the Public in Saudi Arabia: A Cross Sectional Study

“…The willingness of the public to report their symptoms to health authorities and the high rate of preventive measures adoption might be to some degree in uenced by government efforts. As well as the high use of social media and website account of authorities, should be taken into consideration with the current non-pharmaceutical interventions applied by the government and for COVID-19 vaccinations or treatment when available (40)(41)(42).…”

Noncompliance With Safety Guidelines as a Free-Riding Strategy: An Evolutionary Game-Theoretic Approach to Cooperation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…For instance, the incentive to free ride varies as a function of age as older people are more susceptible to disease compared to younger individuals ( Piraveenan et al, 2020 ). Despite vaccinations being free, quick, and well tolerated by recipients in developed countries, the urge to free ride can strongly emerge in such populations as they tend to have lower viral prevalence and higher rates of vaccination compared to less developed countries ( Sharma et al, 2019 ). 2 At the same time, our highly globalized world entails that the vulnerability of richer nations hinges critically on the ability of poorer nations with less developed immunization programs to achieve herd immunity ( Bollyky and Bown, 2021 ).…”