Environmental Risk and Assessment Modelling – Scientific Needs and Expected Advancements

Baklanov, Alexander

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-5877-6_3

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…11, the highest near-bed concentration is observed in the wavefront region, specifically between 2-3 m downstream of the dam's location for cases Sp2-5 at t = 1 s. Conversely, for Sp1, the greatest concentration is found in the near field region around x ≈ 0-1 m. due to a fixed downstream bed. These findings are consistent with the works of Cao et al (2004), Baklanov (2007), Wu and Wang (2008), Vosoughi et al (2020), andPintado-Patiño et al (2021), who demonstrated that increasing sediment concentration leads to a reduction in dam break flow velocity. Hence, the insights provided by Fig.…”

Section: Sediment Transport Analysissupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In a real dam breach, sediment loads originate from three primary sources: the reservoir, downstream channel substrates, and dam material (Baklanov, 2007;Khoshkonesh et al, 2019Khoshkonesh et al, , 2022. Particularly, the characteristics of the reservoir and downstream substrates play a pivotal role in determining the evolution of waves during a dam failure (Leal et al, 2006;Mei et al, 2022;Xu et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Numerical investigation of dam break flow over erodible beds with diverse substrate level variations

Khoshkonesh,

Nsom,

Okhravi

et al. 2024

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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This study aimed to comprehensively investigate the influence of substrate level difference and material composition on dam break wave evolution over two different erodible beds. Utilizing the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method, we tracked free surface advection and reproduced wave evolution using experimental data from the literature. For model validation, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis encompassed mesh resolution, turbulence simulation methods, and bed load transport equations. The implementation of Large Eddy Simulation (LES), non-equilibrium sediment flux, and van Rijn’s (1984) bed load formula yielded higher accuracy compared to alternative approaches. The findings emphasize the significant effect of substrate level difference and material composition on dam break morphodynamic characteristics. Decreasing substrate level disparity led to reduced flow velocity, wavefront progression, free surface height, substrate erosion, and other pertinent parameters. Initial air entrapment proved substantial at the wavefront, illustrating pronounced air-water interaction along the bottom interface. The Shields parameter experienced a one-third reduction as substrate level difference quadrupled, with the highest near-bed concentration observed at the wavefront. This research provides fresh insights into the complex interplay of factors governing dam break wave propagation and morphological changes, advancing our comprehension of this intricate phenomenon.

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Section: Sediment Transport Analysissupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical investigation of dam break flow over erodible beds with diverse substrate level variations

Khoshkonesh,

Nsom,

Okhravi

et al. 2024

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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“…The presented environmental modeling concept is based on variational principles and adjoint sensitivity theory (PENENKO 1975(PENENKO , 1981(PENENKO , 2010PENENKO and BAKLANOV 2001;PENENKO et al 2002;PENENKO and TSVETOVA 2007;BAKLANOV 2000BAKLANOV , 2007. An advantage of this concept is that the variational principles give a possibility to develop an integral technology for the models of various processes (hydrothermodynamic, chemical, biological, economical, etc.)…”

Section: General Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and Inverse Problems in a Variational Concept of Environmental Modeling

Penenko

Baklanov

Tsvetova

et al. 2011

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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A concept of environmental forecasting based on a variational approach is discussed. The basic idea is to augment the existing technology of modeling by a combination of direct and inverse methods. By this means, the scope of environmental studies can be substantially enlarged. In the concept, mathematical models of processes and observation data subject to some uncertainties are considered. The modeling system is derived from a specially formulated weak-constraint variational principle. A set of algorithms for implementing the concept is presented. These are: algorithms for the solution of direct, adjoint, and inverse problems; adjoint sensitivity algorithms; data assimilation procedures; etc. Methods of quantitative estimations of uncertainty are of particular interest since uncertainty functions play a fundamental role for data assimilation, assessment of model quality, and inverse problem solving. A scenario approach is an essential part of the concept. Some methods of orthogonal decomposition of multi-dimensional phase spaces are used to reconstruct the hydrodynamic background fields from available data and to include climatic data into longterm prognostic scenarios. Subspaces with informative bases are constructed to use in deterministic or stochastic-deterministic scenarios for forecasting air quality and risk assessment. The results of implementing example scenarios for the Siberian regions are presented.

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“…As a consequence, classical disciplinary and domain-specific approaches which might be perfectly suitable at local-scale may easily result in unacceptable simplifications within a broader context. A broad perspective is also vital for investigating future natural-hazard patterns at regional/continental scale and adapting preparedness planning [31,32,33]. The complexity and uncertainty associated with these interactions -along with the severity and variety of the involved impacts [34] -urge robust, holistic coordinated [35] and transparent approaches [36,37].…”

Section: Introduction: Context Pitfalls and The Science-policy Interfacementioning

confidence: 99%

Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

Rodriguez-Aseretto,

Schaerer,

de Rigo

2014

Preprint

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Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources. Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems (Urgent-HPC).

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Environmental Risk and Assessment Modelling – Scientific Needs and Expected Advancements

Cited by 4 publications

References 29 publications

Numerical investigation of dam break flow over erodible beds with diverse substrate level variations

Numerical investigation of dam break flow over erodible beds with diverse substrate level variations

Direct and Inverse Problems in a Variational Concept of Environmental Modeling

Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

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