Environmental niche forecasts of globally threatened yellow-throated bulbul, Pycnonotus xantholaemus for conservation prospects in the Deccan peninsula, India

Abstract

12Yellow-throated Bulbul, Pycnonotus xantholaemus is an endemic, rare and threatened species 13 with discontinuous distribution across Deccan peninsula. IUCN has enlisted surveys for 14 newer populations as one of the conservation measures. We used maxent algorithm to 15 generate environmental niche model for further surveys. We looked into climatic envelope at 16 occurrence points and contrast it with background climatic envelope. We compared the 17 model for current scenario and future scenario to assess change in extent of predicted niche 18 over time. We used six variables: climatic, topographical and vegetation layers, and a final 19 set of 102 verified presence locations to generate the model. Topographic ruggedness index 20 and precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) were the strong predictors for Yellow-throated 2 21Bulbul niche. Model predicts highly discontinuous and small fragments totalling 7% area of 22 peninsular India as suitable niche. Only 10 % of predicted niche falls within India's protected 23 area network. Loss of habitat due to granite quarrying and anthropogenic pressure will be a 24 bigger threat than climate change. 25