Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC<sup>4</sup>: A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management

One of the outcomes of the 2021 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments (Stahl et al. forthcoming) was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN‐RRM) integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute wasdefined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner we addressed the management goal of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change‐induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) using model based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, as climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the Yakima River Basin result in a higher probability that the salmon population will continue to not meet the management goal of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations not as important.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA

Landis,

Mitchell,

Hader

et al. 2024

“…The approach and BN implementation described here can also be adapted to other conceptual frameworks for environmental assessment and management, such as the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) causal framework used by the European Environment Agency. Examples related to ecological assessment and management of water quality under climate change according to the EU Water Framework Directive are given by Moe et al (2019) and see Cains et al (2023), respectively.…”

Section: Strengths and Weaknesses Of The Proposed Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This includes combined and interactive effects of climate change with anthropogenic changes in chemical, physical, and biological stressors. Improving the methodologies to assess the risk of chemical stressors in the context of climate scenarios and climate model projections will provide a better foundation for the future management of chemicals (Cains et al, 2023), and more generally for environmental management adapted to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The participants identified and discussed numerous examples of ecosystems where environmental risks of chemicals are known to be influenced by climate change. A more detailed description of environmental processes as well as societal and institutional processes relevant for chemical risk management is given by Cains et al (2023). Three of these examples were selected as case studies (Table 1) for the purpose of developing and evaluating a quantitative modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into ERA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach

Moe,

Brix,

Landis

et al. 2024

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This paper explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near‐ and long‐term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State‐of‐the‐art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate.

Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: Synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop®

Stahl,

Boxall,

Brix

et al. 2024

Self Cite

The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems, and the relatively few peer‐reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field towards climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy making. Here we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022, that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 12 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged to assess where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series “Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples”. We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants.