Environmental indicator for effective control of COVID-19 spreading

Lian, Xinbo; Huang, Jianping; Zhang, Li; Liu, Chuwei; Liu, Xiaoyue; Wang, Lina

doi:10.1101/2020.05.12.20099804

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(32 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The epidemic-associated deaths are defined here as a maximum of the number of COVID-19-assigned deaths and excess deaths (the difference between actual all recorded deaths and their expected value based on recent years 7 , 8 ). We propose to take the maximum of these two values because for a handful of countries the death excess in the first half of 2020 is negligible (or even negative) due to the preventive lockdown which also reduced deaths associated with, e.g., car accidents, influenza, or air pollution 9 , 10 . In the first wave of the epidemic in some considered countries, such as Spain or Netherlands, the difference between COVID-19-assigned deaths and excess deaths was significant (about 40% of excess deaths), whereas in others, such as France or Belgium, it was negligible 11 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

Kochańczyk

Lipniacki

2021

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)–(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

Kochańczyk

Lipniacki

2021

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The epidemic-associated deaths are here defined as a maximum of the number of COVID-19-assigned deaths and excess deaths (the difference between actual all recorded deaths and their expected value based on recent years [6, 7]). We propose to take the maximum of these two values as for a handful of countries the death excess in the first half of 2020 is negligible (or even negative) due to the preventive lockdown which also reduced deaths associated with, e.g., car accidents, influenza, or air pollution [8, 9]. In the first wave of the epidemic in some considered countries, such as Spain or Netherlands, the difference between COVID-19-assigned deaths and excess deaths was significant (about 40% of excess deaths), whereas in others, such as France or Belgium, it was negligible [10]).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic based on Pareto optimality

Kochańczyk

Lipniacki

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency and efficacy of imposed measures vary due to diversity of organizational cultures and ingrained societal practices, but also universally reflect the standpoint from which protecting public health and saving economy are seen as contradictory objectives. We analyzed cumulative deaths per capita and cumulative mobility reduction related to the decrease of economic activity in terms of Pareto optimality to show that as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep lockdown and thus, very likely, with severe economic downturn. We explained this effect by analyzing national epidemic trajectories in the mobility reduction vs. reproduction number (R) plane. When the number of daily new infections is high, mobility reduction is the only way to bring R below 1, but when new infections become sporadic, the epidemic can be suppressed by efficient testing complemented by relatively mild restrictions. South American trajectories suggest that lifting mobility restrictions at R ≥ 1 may ultimately lead to the "herd immunity scenario", in which transient lockdown only adds economic costs to an inevitably high death toll.

show abstract

“…Studies have highlighted the strong impact of meteorological factors on viral as well as host susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 [ 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 ]. We recognized the temperature-dependence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, where the state of Odisha experienced a delay in COVID-19 progression from March to May 2020, when average temperatures were high, ranging from 28.2 to 31.4 °C ( Figure 2 A).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the State of Odisha, India: A Yearlong Exploratory Data Analysis

Nasker

Nanda

Balamurugan

et al. 2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 remains a matter of global public health concern. Previous research suggested the association between local environmental factors and viral transmission. We present a multivariate observational analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the state of Odisha, India, hinting at a seasonal activity. We aim to investigate the demographic characteristics of COVID-19 in the Indian state of Odisha for two specific timelines in 2020 and 2021. For a comparative outlook, we chose similar datasets from the state of New York, USA. Further, we present a critical analysis pertaining to the effects of environmental factors and the emergence of variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and persistence. We assessed the datasets for confirmed cases, death, age, and gender for 29 February 2020 to 31 May 2020, and 1 March 2021 to 31 May 2021. We determined the case fatalities, crude death rates, sex ratio, and incidence rates for both states along with monthly average temperature analysis. A yearlong epi-curve analysis was conducted to depict the coronavirus infection spread pattern in the respective states. The Indian state of Odisha reported a massive 436,455 confirmed cases and 875 deaths during the 2021 timeline as compared to a mere 2223 cases and 7 deaths during the 2020 timeline. We further discuss the demographic and temperature association of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during early 2020 and additionally comment on the variant-associated massive rise in cases during 2021. Along with the rapid rise of variants, the high population density and population behavior seem to be leading causes for the 2021 pandemic, whereas factors such as age group, gender, and average local temperature were prominent during the 2020 spread. A seasonal occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is also observed from the yearlong epidemiological plot. The recent second wave of COVID-19 is a lesson that emphasizes the significance of continuous epidemiological surveillance to predict the relative risk of viral transmission for a specific region.

show abstract

Environmental indicator for effective control of COVID-19 spreading

Abstract: 20Recently, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused viral pneumonia worldwide, 21 spreading to more than 200 countries, posing a major threat to international health. To prevent 22

Cited by 7 publications

References 35 publications

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

Evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic based on Pareto optimality

Epidemiological Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the State of Odisha, India: A Yearlong Exploratory Data Analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About