Environmental and human health trade-offs in potential Chinese dietary shifts

Guo, Yixin; He, Pan; Searchinger, Tim; Chen, Youfan; Springmann, Marco; Zhou, Mi; Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Lin; Mauzerall, Denise L.

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.02.002

Cited by 35 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Compared with the research results of those single regions or highly aggregated regions 14,26 , our study provides more spatial detail and demonstrates the differential impacts of dietary transitions across countries to reveal the challenges that different countries may face in the dietary transition over time. It is worth noting that a recent study utilizing an economy-wide general equilibrium model has provided insights into the effects of adopting an EAT-Lancet diet primarily focusing on the economic, social, and environmental spillovers arising from dietary transitions speci cally by 2030 21 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has high environmental and affordability trade-offs for developing countries

Wang,

Deng,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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While dietary transitions offer benefits for both people and the environment globally, uncertainties persist regarding their impacts on the environment, human health, and food affordability across countries and over time. Here, we project water use, dietary quality, and food affordability from 2020–2100 under four healthy dietary scenarios and a baseline to assess potential challenges and opportunities at the country level over time. Using the MAgPIE model, we show that transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets could yield substantial enhancements in global dietary quality. However, in the initial phases, these transitions entail addressing water use and food affordability challenges. Yet, the advantages of transitions will manifest as the population and economy expand. By 2100, average dietary quality and food affordability could improve by 38.48% and 39.95%, and reduce water use by 10.82% globally. Nevertheless, we emphasize that sustainable development will be impeded in developing countries due to increased food demand, with a maximum deterioration in water use and food affordability of 2.54% and 29.25%, respectively. Although negative impacts will gradually subside as the dietary transition is completed, targeted interventions are still needed to improve water management and mitigate potential economic burdens during the dietary transition.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has high environmental and affordability trade-offs for developing countries

Wang,

Deng,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…It is important to further explore how to mitigate adverse effects through socioeconomic structural transitions. Numerous studies have explored the effects of policy interventions (mainly including end-of-pipe control measures and partial socioeconomic system regulations) on environmental impacts Guo et al, 2022). However, the impacts of changes in structural factors such as production structure, consumption structure, and population structure in socioeconomic system on environmental impacts have not been fully revealed.…”

Section: Effects Of Human Interventions On Environmental Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing environmental impacts through socioeconomic transitions: critical review and prospects

Liang

Zhong

2022

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.

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Rapid socioeconomic development has caused numerous environmental impacts. Human production and consumption activities are the underlying drivers of resource uses, environmental emissions, and associated environmental impacts (e.g., ecosystem quality and human health). Reducing environmental impacts requires an understanding of the complex interactions between socioeconomic system and environmental system. Existing studies have explored the relationships among human society, economic system, and environmental system. However, it is unclear about the research progress in the effects of socioeconomic activities on environmental impacts and the potential directions of future research. This critical review finds that existing studies have identified critical regions, sectors, and transmission pathways for resource uses, environmental emissions, and environmental impacts from supply chain perspectives. Moreover, scholars have characterized the impacts of socioeconomic transitions on resource uses and environmental emissions. However, existing studies overlook the dynamic nature of the interconnections among human society, economic system, and environmental system. In addition, the effects of socioeconomic structural transitions on environmental impacts remain unknown. This review proposes four prospects and possible solutions that will contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions among human society, economic system, and environmental system. They can help identify more effective solutions to reduce environmental impacts through socioeconomic transitions.

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“…Still, most cities (74.3%) had PM 2.5 concentrations that exceeded the national air quality standard (annual mean of 35 μg m –3 ) in 2017 . Recent studies have discussed the potential of NH 3 emission controls to further promote air quality improvements. − At both national and global scales, NH 3 emission abatement has been suggested to be cost-effective for mitigating air pollution and improving human health while reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining and/or increasing crop yields. − …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summertime Urban Ammonia Emissions May Be Substantially Underestimated in Beijing, China

Xu,

Lu,

Guo

et al. 2023

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Ammonia (NH 3 ) is critical to the nitrogen cycle and PM 2.5 formation, yet a great deal of uncertainty exists in its urban emission quantifications. Modelunderestimated NH 3 concentrations have been reported for cities, yet few studies have provided an explanation. Here, we explore reasons for severe WRF-Chem model underestimations of NH 3 concentrations in Beijing in August 2018, including simulated gas-particle partitioning, meteorology, regional transport, and emissions, using spatially refined (3 km resolution) NH 3 emission estimates in the agricultural sector for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and in the traffic sector for Beijing. We find that simulated NH 3 concentrations are significantly lower than ground-based and satellite observations during August in Beijing, while wintertime underestimations are much more moderate. Further analyses and sensitivity experiments show that such discrepancies cannot be attributed to factors other than biases in NH 3 emissions. Using site measurements as constraints, we estimate that both agricultural and non-agricultural NH 3 emission totals in Beijing shall increase by ∼5 times to match the observations. Future research should be performed to allocate underestimations to urban fertilizer, power, traffic, or residential sources. Dense and regular urban NH 3 observations are necessary to constrain and validate bottom-up inventories and NH x simulation.

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Environmental and human health trade-offs in potential Chinese dietary shifts

Cited by 35 publications

References 51 publications

Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has high environmental and affordability trade-offs for developing countries

Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has high environmental and affordability trade-offs for developing countries

Reducing environmental impacts through socioeconomic transitions: critical review and prospects

Summertime Urban Ammonia Emissions May Be Substantially Underestimated in Beijing, China

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