Entropy-Based Risk Control of Geological Disasters in Mountain Tunnels under Uncertain Environments

Abstract

Uncertainty is one of the main sources of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in the existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R 1) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common multi-attribute decision-making models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.

Risk assessment of Cretaceous water inrush in the Ordos Basin based on the FAHP-EM

“…The EM first appeared in thermodynamics and was later introduced into information theory (Shannon, 1948). It is widely used in various fields (Zou et al, 2006;Zhang et al, 2010;Xia et al, 2018). According to the following three steps, the weighting is evaluated using the EM.…”

“…In the evaluation of n objects with m indices, the entropy (e) of the ith index is determined using the following equations (Xia et al, 2018):…”

Performance of Portfolios Based on the Expected Utility-Entropy Fund Rating Approach

“…Furthermore, Yang and Qiu [ 23 ] improved the model to a normalized EU-E decision model, allowing for comparison of risky choices where the numbers of states are widely dispersed. Dong et al [ 32 ], Xia et al [ 33 ], and Xia et al [ 34 ] presented several discussions on the EU-E decision model and emphasizing the role of Shannon entropy in the field of decision-making under risk. Casquilho and Rego [ 35 ] used decision models with different utility values combined with weighted entropies, respectively, incorporating rarity factors associated with Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures.…”

Study on Risk Control of Water Inrush in Tunnel Construction Period Considering Uncertainty

“…Aiming at this problem in the EU-E model, Dong, Lu, Xia, and Xiong (2016) proposed an entropy-hazard model, which uses the concept of tolerance cost to analyse and control the impact of uncertainty on risk, however, the computational efficiency of the model is low, and it is difficult to determine a reasonable scheme of uncertainty control. Xia, Xiong, Dong, and Lu (2017) and Xia, Xiong, Wen, Lu, and Dong (2018) conducted sensitivity analysis based on the entropy-hazard model to narrow the scope of alternatives offered, improve computational efficiency, and selected the optimal risk control scheme based on stochastic decision theory; however, because the mechanism of water inrush during tunnel construction is complex and there are many factors influencing it, determining the exact relationship between risk factors and the probability of water inrush disaster is difficult, so the above method cannot be directly applied. In addition, risk assessment and decision-making usually require the participation of expert groups.…”