ENSO Observations

McPhaden, Michael J.; Lee, Tong; Fournier, Séverine; Balmaseda, Magdalena

doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch3

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 106 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Especially, during extreme El Niño events a huge amount of heat is released to the atmosphere that is otherwise stored in the subsurface ocean. In the past, during the extreme EP El Niños of 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015 has led to a global temperature increase by 0.1-0.2 K (McPhaden, Lee, et al, 2020). The additional heat release is rather short, that is, lasting for up to 1 year, but can, however, trigger other tipping elements, in the worst case initiate a tipping cascade, and therefore further enhance global warming (Dekker et al, 2018;Duque-Villegas et al, 2019;Wunderling et al, 2021).…”

Section: Self-perturbating Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is the globally dominant mode of interannual climate variability with vast socio‐economic impacts in the Pacific region and beyond (McPhaden, 1999; McPhaden, Lee, et al., 2020). ENSO's warm phase, El Niño, is associated with warm anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific (EEP and CEP, respectively) that weaken the trade winds over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), which deepens the thermocline in the EEP, further enhancing SST anomalies (SSTa, Bjerknes, 1969).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?

Bayr,

Lübbecke,

Fiedler

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.

show abstract

Section: Self-perturbating Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?

Bayr,

Lübbecke,

Fiedler

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both the ocean and the atmosphere. However, the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict OHC remains largely untested. Here, we present a global assessment of OHC predictability in two state-of-the-art and fully-coupled seasonal forecasting systems. Overall, we find that dynamical systems make skilful seasonal predictions of OHC in the upper 300 m across a range of forecast start times, seasons and dynamical environments. Predictions of OHC are typically as skilful as predictions of sea surface temperature (SST), providing further proof that accurate representation of subsurface heat contributes to accurate surface predictions. We also compare dynamical systems to a simple anomaly persistence model to identify where dynamical systems provide added value over cheaper forecasts; this largely occurs in the equatorial regions and the tropics, and to a greater extent in the latter part of the forecast period. Regions where system performance is inadequate include the sub-polar regions and areas dominated by sharp fronts, which should be the focus of future improvements of climate forecasting systems.

show abstract

Long-term meteorological characteristics and extreme climate indices over Tirupati: a rapidly developing tropical city

Thandlam,

Kaagita,

Sakirevupalli

2024

Discov Cities

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tirupati’s climate has undergone significant changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns. While there has been a consistent increase in rainfall during the southwest monsoon, there is a concerning long-term trend of a decrease in total annual precipitation over the last 30 years. The city has experienced a rise in wet days during both the southwest and northeast monsoons, yet a recent decrease over the past three decades. Heavy precipitation events, particularly during the southwest monsoon, have shown a positive trend, whereas there have been no significant changes in heavy rainfall days during the northeast monsoon. Temperature trends reveal that there has been a warming scenario, with a significant positive trend in annual maximum temperatures and a consistent annual rise in mean minimum temperatures. A substantial decrease in cold and very cold days, especially during the last 30 years, suggests a broader warming trend impacting seasonal temperature variations in Tirupati. These findings highlight the complex interplay of monsoons, temperature variations, and changing precipitation patterns in Tirupati's climate over the years.

show abstract

ENSO Observations

Cited by 5 publications

References 106 publications

Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?

Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

Long-term meteorological characteristics and extreme climate indices over Tirupati: a rapidly developing tropical city

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About