ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Maussion, Fabien; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Großhauser, Martin; Kaser, Georg; Marzeion, Ben

doi:10.5194/tcd-9-2999-2015

Cited by 15 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…The lower melt factor at this time dampens the intensity of melt, possibly because of the absence of heat transfer from rain (Francou, 2004), but it nonetheless simulates among the highest melt volumes of the simulation period ( Figure 5(a)), consistent with other studies showing increased melt in response to El Niño events in the Andes (Francou, 2004;Veettil et al, 2014a;Manciati et al, 2014;Maussion et al, 2015;Veettil et al, 2016). Huss et al (2009) …”

supporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Saberi¹,

McLaughlin²,

Ng³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate models predict amplified warming at high elevations in low latitudes, making tropical glacierized regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems in the world. Observations reveal decreasing streamflow due to retreating glaciers in the Andes, which hold 99% of all tropical glaciers. However, the timescales over which meltwater contributes to streamflow and the pathways it takes -surface and subsurface -remain uncertain, hindering our ability to predict how shrinking glaciers will impact water resources. Two major contributors to this uncertainty are the sparsity of hydrologic mea-5 surements in tropical glacierized watersheds and the complication of hydrograph separation where there is year-round glacier melt. We address these challenges using a multi-method approach that employs repeat hydrochemical mixing model analysis, hydroclimatic time series analysis, and integrated watershed modeling. Each of these approaches interrogates distinct timescale relationships among meltwater, groundwater, and stream discharge. Our results challenge the commonly held conceptual model that glaciers buffer discharge variability. Instead, in a sub-humid watershed on Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, meltwater drives 10 nearly all the variability in discharge (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.89 in simulations), with glaciers contributing a broad range of 20-60% or wider of discharge, mostly (86%) through surface runoff on hourly timescales, but also through infiltration that increases annual groundwater contributions by nearly 20%. We further found that rainfall may enhance melt contributions to discharge at timescales that complement melt generation, possibly explaining why minimum discharge occurred at the study site during warm but dry El Niño conditions, which typically heighten melt in the Andes. Our findings caution against extrap-15 olations from isolated measurements: stream discharge and meltwater contributions in tropical glacierized systems can change substantially at hourly to interannual timescales, due to climatic variability and surface to subsurface flow processes.

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supporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Saberi¹,

McLaughlin²,

Ng³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Vuille et al ., ; Veettil & Kamp, ; Veettil et al ., ). Lower rate of glacier shrinkage on the western slopes compared to eastern sides can be possibly due to the geometry of incoming solar radiation as well as the slight mass balance gained during the cold phases of La Niña events (Maussion et al ., ; Veettil et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Glacier mapping in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, tropical Andes, using Sentinel‐2 and Landsat data

Veettil

2018

Singap J Trop Geogr

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Sentinel‐2 images were used for mapping debris‐free glaciers for the first time in Cordillera Blanca. Landsat‐8 and Sentinel‐2 data were compared for glacier area estimation in 2016, obtaining comparable results. It was observed that normalized difference snow index method for glacier mapping using MSI data is less sensitive to cast shadows and steep terrain compared with Landsat data. Estimated total glacier areas in 1975, 1994, and 2016 were 726 ± 20.3 km2, 576.9 ± 15.1 km2 and 482.8 ± 7.4 km2, respectively. Glacier area in 2016 using Landsat was slightly lower (475.7 ± 16.8 km2) compared to the area estimated using MSI data. Observed glacier shrinkage between 1975 and 2016 was 33.5 per cent, which is lower compared to observed glacier area loss in the eastern cordilleras of Peru. Glacier shrinkage was higher at northern and northeastern slopes (47.9 per cent and 48.1 per cent, respectively) compared to the south‐western slopes (11.1 per cent).

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“…The FLH is closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics [ Bradley et al , ], including the Andes of Ecuador [e.g., Francou et al , ]. This relation might also be valid for the Peruvian Andes [e.g., Vuille et al , , Maussion et al , ]. CMIP5 GCMs exhibit a range of behaviors for ENSO variability in the future, some showing an increase in ENSO variability, others a decrease, and some no change [ Guilyardi et al , ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The freezing level in the tropical Andes, Peru: An indicator for present and future glacier extents

et al. 2017

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Along with air temperatures, the freezing level height (FLH) has risen over the last decades. The mass balance of tropical glaciers in Peru is highly sensitive to a rise in the FLH, mainly due to a decrease in accumulation and increase of energy for ablation caused by reduced albedo. Knowledge of future changes in the FLH is thus crucial to estimating changes in glacier extents. Since in situ data are scarce at altitudes where glaciers exist (above ~4800 m above sea level (asl)), reliable FLH estimates must be derived from multiple data types. Here we assessed the FLHs and their spatiotemporal variability, as well as the related snow/rain transition in the two largest glacier‐covered regions in Peru by combining data from two climate reanalysis products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar Bright Band data, Micro Rain Radar data, and meteorological ground station measurements. The mean annual FLH lies at 4900 and 5010 m asl, for the Cordillera Blanca and Vilcanota, respectively. During the wet season, the FLH in the Cordillera Vilcanota lies ~150 m higher compared to the Cordillera Blanca, which is in line with the higher glacier terminus elevations. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century, the FLH will rise by 230 m (±190 m) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 850 m (±390 m) for RCP8.5. Even under the most optimistic scenario, glaciers may continue shrinking considerably, assuming a close relation between FLH and glacier extents. Under the most pessimistic scenario, glaciers may only remain at the highest summits above approximately 5800 m asl.

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ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Cited by 15 publications

References 64 publications

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Glacier mapping in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, tropical Andes, using Sentinel‐2 and Landsat data

The freezing level in the tropical Andes, Peru: An indicator for present and future glacier extents

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