ENSO-driven extreme oscillations in mean sea level destabilise critical shoreline mangroves—An emerging threat

Abstract

Recent ENSO-related, extreme low oscillations in mean sea level, referred to as ‘Taimasa’ in Samoa, have destabilised shoreline mangroves of tropical northern Australia, and possibly elsewhere. In 1982 and 2015, two catastrophic Taimasa each resulted in widespread mass dieback of ~76 km2 of shoreline mangroves along 2,000 km of Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria. For the 2015 event, we determined that a temporary drop in sea level of ~0.4 metres for up to six months duration caused upper zone shoreline mangroves across the region to die from severe moisture deficit and desiccation. The two dramatic collapse events revealed a previously unrecognised vulnerability of semi-arid tidal wetland habitats to more extreme ENSO influences on sea level. In addition, we also observed a relationship between annual sea level oscillations and mangrove forest productivity where seasonal oscillations in mean sea level were co-incident with regular annual mangrove leaf growth during months of higher sea levels (March-May), and leaf shedding during lower sea levels (September-November). The combination of these periodic fluctuations in sea level defined a mangrove ‘Goldilocks’ zone of seasonal productivity during median-scale oscillations, bracketed by critical threshold events when sea levels became unusually low, or high. On the two occasions reported here when sea levels were extremely low, upper zone mangrove vegetation died en masse in synchrony across northern Australia. Such extreme pulse impacts combined with localised stressors profoundly threaten the longer-term survival of mangrove ecosystems and their benefits, like minimisation of shoreline erosion with rising sea levels. These new insights into such critical influences of climate and sea level on mangrove forests offer further affirmation of the urgency for implementing well-considered mitigation efforts for the protection of shoreline mangroves at risk, especially given predictions of future re-occurrences of extreme events affecting sea levels, combined with on-going pressure of rapidly rising sea levels.

Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position

“…The massive re-organizations of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), arguably the most prominent interannual global climate fluctuation 50 , has long been known to cause major shifts in weather patterns and therefore produce interannual variations in global sea-level, waves, rainfall and continental freshwater flux to the ocean 51 – 54 , even far from its dominant region of influence 55 , 56 . While ENSO is known to be unambiguously dominant in the Pacific with strong impacts on the shoreline and coastal ecosystems 41 , 42 , 51 , 57 – 64 , the possible linkages between ENSO and the key drivers of shoreline change at global scale have not yet been fully explored. In particular, the recent rejuvenation of ENSO research has led to many theoretical breakthroughs in understanding its complex and diverse regimes 65 .…”

Frecuencia Del Grupo Escape en Heridas en Pacientes De Un Hospital Del Estado De Puebla, México

“…Os eventos extremos expõem as zonas costeiras a mudanças irreversíveis, causando a ruptura de habitats e alterações na distribuição de espécies (DUKE et al, 2022).…”

Seagrass spatial data synthesis from north‐east Australia, Torres Strait and Gulf of Carpentaria, 1983 to 2022

“…The Gulf of Carpentaria is an extensive (~300,000 km 2 ) and low energy shallow semi‐enclosed sea. It is characterized by complex, mangrove‐lined creeks and estuaries and extensive seagrass meadows that grow along the coast (Poiner et al 1987; Roelofs et al 2005; Wightman 2006; Duke et al 2020, 2021, 2022) (Fig. 1).…”