ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections

Taschetto, Andréa S.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Stuecker, Malte F.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Ashok, Karumuri; Rodrigues, Regina R.; Yeh, Sang‐Wook

doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch14

Cited by 82 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 220 publications

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“…Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under increasing greenhouse gas emissions is critical due to ENSO's widespread impacts, which include changes to floods, droughts, and fisheries production (e.g. McPhaden et al, 2006;Taschetto et al, 2020;Cai et al, 2021). While previous work demonstrates model agreement on future intensification of ENSO's atmospheric impacts (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Maher

Wills²,

DiNezio³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find non-linear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The non-linear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterising this time-dependent behaviour, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Maher

Wills²,

DiNezio³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Our model results show significant Asian‐Australian monsoon suppression since June+0, which prolongs and intensifies throughout year+1 under the RCP8.5 scenario, while under the preindustrial condition the Asian‐Australian monsoon suppression lasts only from June +0 to September+0 (Figure 4c). This Asian‐Australian monsoon suppression is not only caused directly by the volcanic forcing (Ohba et al., 2013), but also enhanced by the high‐pressure Kelvin‐wave response to the African monsoon suppression (Gill, 1980) and by Pacific El Niño‐like SST forcing (Figure 4; Taschetto et al., 2021). The latter, represented by positive precipitation anomaly over central‐to‐eastern Pacific (Figure S2 in Supporting Information ), becomes significantly influential and may contribute dominantly to the prolonged suppression during Aug+0 to May+1 under the RCP8.5 scenario (Figure 3c and Figure 4c).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Responses to Tambora‐Size Volcanic Eruption and the Impact of Warming Climate

Yang

Gao

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The climatic consequences of large volcanic eruptions depend on the direct radiative perturbation and the climate variability that amplifies or dampens the initial perturbation. Potential climate responses to future eruptions, however, have been rarely studied. Here we show perturbation of Tambora‐size causes significant but no inter‐scenario different global average climate responses, by using Community Earth System Model simulations under preindustrial and RCP8.5 scenarios. Regionally we find severe reduction in African and Asian‐Australian monsoon rainfall and emerge of El Niño‐like responses, largely due to the land‐ocean thermal contrast mechanism. Global warming significantly amplifies such El Niño‐like responses, which feed on the enhanced climatology atmospheric moisture and cause higher sensitivity of monsoon circulation to radiative forcing in the tropics. We also find prolonged Asian‐Australian monsoon suppression associated with the enhanced westerly anomalies over the Pacific, suggesting the complexity of climate responses and feedbacks to external forcing under future climate.

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“…The massive re-organizations of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), arguably the most prominent interannual global climate fluctuation (McPhaden et al, 2006), has long been known to cause major shifts in global weather patterns and therefore produce strong interannual variations in global sea-level, waves, rainfall and continental freshwater flux to the ocean (Ranasinghe et al, 2004;Harley et al, 2010;Sprintall, et al, 2020;Odériz, et al,2020), even far from its dominant region of influence (Yeh et al, 2018;Taschetto, et al, 2020). However, the linkages between ENSO and the key drivers of shoreline change at global scale has not yet been investigated in detail.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño controls the evolution of shorelines worldwide

Almar

Graffin

Boucharel

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Coastal zones are fragile and complex dynamical systems that are increasingly under threat from the combined effects of anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Yet, the key environmental factors that drive regional coastline changes remain poorly quantified. Here, using global satellite derived shoreline positions from 2000 to 2017 and a variety of reanalysis products, we demonstrate that coastlines are under the influence of 3 main drivers: the sea-level, and also ocean waves and fluvial inputs. The relative contribution of each of the drivers vary across the global coastline, with about a third exhibiting a clear dominance of one of the drivers (60% for sea level, 30% for rivers and 10% for waves). Furthermore, by establishing that these environmental forcing are all substantially constrained by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at interannual time scales, we derive a conceptual global model of yearly shoreline changes that integrates the complex and diverse planetary climate influence of ENSO on each of these 3 drivers. This model reproduces well the observed shoreline changes with a global correlation of 0.4 and up to 0.6 in the tropical belt. We believe it represents a new solid physical and mathematical framework for understanding ENSO-driven littoral hazards as well as an efficient yet simple approach for their prediction.

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ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections

Cited by 82 publications

References 220 publications

The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Climate Responses to Tambora‐Size Volcanic Eruption and the Impact of Warming Climate

El Niño controls the evolution of shorelines worldwide

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