Ensemble of small models as a tool for alien invasive species management planning: evaluation of Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) under Mediterranean island conditions

Abstract

Ecological niche models have proved to be a powerful tool in assessing invasiveness risk of alien species, allowing the optimization of control strategies. Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) is an invasive species with strong ecological, economical and health impacts in Europe after it was first reported in France in 2004. It was detected for the first time on a Mediterranean island (Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain) in 2015, where a single nest was found in the northwest of the island. Immediately, a control plan was implemented. In this study, we analysed 30 occurrence data in Mallorca island to assess the suitability distribution predicted for Mediterranean island conditions using an ensemble of small models. We obtained high values of AUC (0.9165), Somers’ D (0.8331), Boyce (0.7611) and TSS (0.7754) as quality parameters of the final ensembled model. We show for the first time that there are suitable areas where this species can expand and stablish, mainly in steeper slopes and low isothermality zones. Likewise, the distribution suitability of V. velutina for other Mediterranean islands (Ibiza, Formentera, Menorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus) was also explored, showing potentially suitable zones. This study provides valuable information regarding the areas in the Mediterranean islands under risk of invasion, and it could be used by both scientists and managers for an early detection and control of the invasive species due to its cost-effectiveness in terms of conservation.

Future range dynamics of Asian yellow‐legged hornets (Vespa velutina) and their range overlap with Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) reveal major challenges for bee conservation in Europe

“…Several studies have examined the potential ranges of the yellow-legged hornet. 16,17,26,27,49,50 For example, Barbet-Massin et al predicted the area of suitable habitat for the hornet under various scenarios of future climate change and observed that climate change may increase the risk of future hornet invasions. 48 Additionally, Abou-shaara and Al-khalaf examined the recent and future distribution of this hornet in Europe and North Africa and found that habitat suitability for the hornets was high in west Europe, Libya, and Egypt.…”

“…17 Additionally, using an ensemble of small models, Herrera et al found that the hornets could become established on steep slopes and low isothermality zones. 27 These studies have enhanced our understanding of the potential distribution of the hornet. In our study, we examined the range dynamics of the hornets and clarified the overlap between the hornets and bees under future climate and land-use change scenarios.…”

“…26 Recently, Herrera et al observed that regions with steep slopes could be the hornets' potential ranges in the island of Mallorca. 27 Hayashi and Satoh observed local congregations of Western honeybee males at low elevations in Tokyo, Japan, 28 suggesting their potential ranges might vary with topographical patterns, though this observation might be inherently linked to the action of beekeepers. In sum, although studies have examined the roles of topographical factors in the potential ranges of the hornets and the predilection of Western honey bees to topography, few European-scale studies on the associations between topographical factors and their potential ranges and the range overlap between them have been conducted.…”

Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change

“…Previous studies have revealed the superior predictive performance of EM over a single SDM, and single model uncertainty can be avoided or reduced by EM [ 40 , 41 ]. For instance, some studies on the prediction of the distribution pattern of Vespa velutina in the Mediterranean island regions [ 42 ], estimating the global invasion risk for Hemiculter leucisculus [ 43 ] and predicting the habitat suitability for the invasive bee in Hawai’i [ 44 ], indicated that the predictions using an EM were more reliable than those using a single SDM. We also assessed niche dynamics during the global invasion process and significant variables affecting the global distribution pattern of P. semipunctata .…”

Can ecological niche models be used to accurately predict the distribution of invasive insects? A case study of Hyphantria cunea in China

“…In recent years, many studies on invasive insects have utilized ENMs. Ramasamy et al (2022) used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda; Finch et al (2021) used CLIMEX to assess the global potential distribution of Paracoccus marginatus; and Herrera et al (2023) analyzed the invasion risk of Vespa velutina on Mediterranean islands using an ensemble of small models (EM).…”