Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

New and little-known Canadian Lasioglossum (Dialictus) (Hymenoptera: Halictidae) and an emended key to species

“…Range extensions on similarly large scales have been discovered in Anthophorula micheneri (Timberlake, 1948) (Sellers and McCarthy 2015), Diadasia ochracea (Cockerell, 1903) (Gibbs, unpublished data), Lasioglossum semicaeruleum (Cockerell, 1895) (Scarpulla and Droege, unpublished data), and several introduced Hawaiian bees, including four L. (Dialictus): L. helianthi, L. impavidum (Sandhouse, 1924), L. microlepoides (Ellis, 1914, and L. puteulanum Gibbs, 2009(Magnacca et al 2013Tabor and Koch 2021). It is therefore plausible that the Manitoba specimen is truly conspecific with the American and Mexican specimens and not a separate, cryptic species.…”

Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change

“…Previous studies have revealed the superior predictive performance of EM over a single SDM, and single model uncertainty can be avoided or reduced by EM [ 40 , 41 ]. For instance, some studies on the prediction of the distribution pattern of Vespa velutina in the Mediterranean island regions [ 42 ], estimating the global invasion risk for Hemiculter leucisculus [ 43 ] and predicting the habitat suitability for the invasive bee in Hawai’i [ 44 ], indicated that the predictions using an EM were more reliable than those using a single SDM. We also assessed niche dynamics during the global invasion process and significant variables affecting the global distribution pattern of P. semipunctata .…”

Revision of the Nearctic species of the Lasioglossum (Dialictus) gemmatum species complex (Hymenoptera: Halictidae)

“…Lasioglossum puteulanum was previously only known from the southeastern United States. It was first reported from Hawaii by Tabor & Koch (2021), but has evidently existed there and gone undetected for some time previously. The specimens of L. helianthi from Magnacca et al (2013) were examined and found to be a mixed series including some L. puteulanum, and a successful DNA barcode from one of these specimens confirmed the identification.…”

“…This group is extremely widespread in the Western Hemisphere, ranging throughout most of North America (only absent from northern Canada) (Gardner & Gibbs 2022) and western South America from Colombia to Argentina and Chile (Engel 2000;unpublished data). It occurs even on remote islands including Hawaii (Tabor & Koch 2021), the Greater Antilles (Gibbs 2018b), Isla Socorro (unpublished data), and the Archipiélago de Juan Fernández (Engel 2000). This suggests a great dispersal ability, although the species occurring in Hawaii are known to be non-native there and may have been introduced by humans (Magnacca et al 2013).…”