2014
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6
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Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

Abstract: We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addi… Show more

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Cited by 44 publications
(44 citation statements)
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References 42 publications
(68 reference statements)
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“…Such reduction could eventually be achieved by continuing extensive (and expensive) measures decreasing terrestrial phosphorus loads (HELCOM, 2015(HELCOM, , 2017aMcCrackin et al, under revision), which would require decades of patiently tolerating the unpleasant effects of cyanobacteria blooms, from impaired recreation and toxicity to poor food and spawning conditions for cod (e.g., Casini et al, 2016). The reduction might be accelerated by geoengineering methods (e.g., Gustafsson et al, 2008;Rydin et al, 2017;Stigebrandt, 2018), but despite all the achievements in ecosystem modeling of the Baltic Sea (e.g., Meier et al, 2014;Tedesco et al, 2016) there are still no biogeochemical and ecosystem models capable of producing reliable long-term scenario simulations with the required engineering precision to assess these options. Thus, the further development of adequate parameterizations followed by the necessary computations should be considered as one of the most urgent needs in the contemporary study and ecosystem management of the Baltic Sea.…”
Section: Management Considerationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Such reduction could eventually be achieved by continuing extensive (and expensive) measures decreasing terrestrial phosphorus loads (HELCOM, 2015(HELCOM, , 2017aMcCrackin et al, under revision), which would require decades of patiently tolerating the unpleasant effects of cyanobacteria blooms, from impaired recreation and toxicity to poor food and spawning conditions for cod (e.g., Casini et al, 2016). The reduction might be accelerated by geoengineering methods (e.g., Gustafsson et al, 2008;Rydin et al, 2017;Stigebrandt, 2018), but despite all the achievements in ecosystem modeling of the Baltic Sea (e.g., Meier et al, 2014;Tedesco et al, 2016) there are still no biogeochemical and ecosystem models capable of producing reliable long-term scenario simulations with the required engineering precision to assess these options. Thus, the further development of adequate parameterizations followed by the necessary computations should be considered as one of the most urgent needs in the contemporary study and ecosystem management of the Baltic Sea.…”
Section: Management Considerationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In studies of the Baltic Sea, such models have been developed almost in parallel with the growth of eutrophication (Sjöberg et al, 1972;Savchuk, 1984Savchuk, , 1986Stigebrandt and Wulff, 1987;Savchuk and Wulff, 1999Neumann, 2000;Eilola et al, 2009Eilola et al, , 2011. Nowadays, the models are used in a variety of scenario simulations, including those needed for support of nutrient management decisions (e.g., Savchuk, 2000;Gustafsson et al, 2008Gustafsson et al, , 2012Neumann, 2010;Friedland et al, 2012;Meier et al, 2012Meier et al, , 2014Ryabchenko et al, 2016;Meier et al, in preparation). Such support was instrumental in the development and revision (HELCOM, 2013a) of the eutrophication segment of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (HELCOM, 2007(HELCOM, , 2013bBacker et al, 2010).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Its ability to reproduce the inter-annual variation of discharge also makes the model useful as input to oceanographic models (e.g. Meier et al 2014). There remain, however, modelling issues to improve in the simulation of seasonality in discharge for some regions, particularly rivers draining to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.…”
Section: Model Performance Usefulness and Improvementsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The proposed multi-parameter ensemble modelling strategy can be an effective support to the formulation of adaptive management strategies under combined pressures (Meier et al 2014). This study aimed at exploring the potential numerical model contribution to EBM.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%