Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

Meier, H. E. Markus; Andersson, Helén; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo; Kotwicki, Lech; Neset, Tina-Simone; Niiranen, Susa; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Savchuk, Oleg; Schenk, Frederik; Węsławski, Jan Marcin; Zorita, Eduardo

doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6

Cited by 45 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Such reduction could eventually be achieved by continuing extensive (and expensive) measures decreasing terrestrial phosphorus loads (HELCOM, 2015(HELCOM, , 2017aMcCrackin et al, under revision), which would require decades of patiently tolerating the unpleasant effects of cyanobacteria blooms, from impaired recreation and toxicity to poor food and spawning conditions for cod (e.g., Casini et al, 2016). The reduction might be accelerated by geoengineering methods (e.g., Gustafsson et al, 2008;Rydin et al, 2017;Stigebrandt, 2018), but despite all the achievements in ecosystem modeling of the Baltic Sea (e.g., Meier et al, 2014;Tedesco et al, 2016) there are still no biogeochemical and ecosystem models capable of producing reliable long-term scenario simulations with the required engineering precision to assess these options. Thus, the further development of adequate parameterizations followed by the necessary computations should be considered as one of the most urgent needs in the contemporary study and ecosystem management of the Baltic Sea.…”

Section: Management Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In studies of the Baltic Sea, such models have been developed almost in parallel with the growth of eutrophication (Sjöberg et al, 1972;Savchuk, 1984Savchuk, , 1986Stigebrandt and Wulff, 1987;Savchuk and Wulff, 1999Neumann, 2000;Eilola et al, 2009Eilola et al, , 2011. Nowadays, the models are used in a variety of scenario simulations, including those needed for support of nutrient management decisions (e.g., Savchuk, 2000;Gustafsson et al, 2008Gustafsson et al, , 2012Neumann, 2010;Friedland et al, 2012;Meier et al, 2012Meier et al, , 2014Ryabchenko et al, 2016;Meier et al, in preparation). Such support was instrumental in the development and revision (HELCOM, 2013a) of the eutrophication segment of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (HELCOM, 2007(HELCOM, , 2013bBacker et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

2018

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The Baltic Sea is one of the world's marine areas well-covered by both long-term observations and oceanographic studies. It is also a large coastal area in which eutrophication had already been recognized half a century ago. While the mechanisms of eutrophication are largely understood, several features are less recognized and sometimes neglected, including: (a) natural and anthropogenic North-South and East-West nutrient gradients within the drainage basin and marine ecosystems; (b) the compensatory potential of the interconnectivity between the Baltic Sea basins; (c) long nutrient residence times and high buffer capacity of the system, resulting in slow responses to nutrient load reductions. Particularly important is the interaction of (d) naturally occurring saltwater inflows sporadically ventilating deep water layers and (e) a partly man-made intensification of biological oxygen consumption. Resulting redox alterations of biogeochemical nitrogen and phosphorus cycles are locked in a "vicious circle" that promotes cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation, thereby hindering nitrogen load reduction and sustaining an elevated trophic state. This tight coupling of natural environmental variation and human impacts complicates both scientific studies and management recommendations. Our primary objective is to describe all these features and mechanisms with the best available data on nutrient loads, and unique estimates of the basin-wide nutrient pools. These data are presented as both long-term time series and empirical nutrient budgets. The analysis is supplemented by results of biogeochemical modeling. A second, more practical objective is to make these time series available to the community.

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Section: Management Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

2018

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“…Its ability to reproduce the inter-annual variation of discharge also makes the model useful as input to oceanographic models (e.g. Meier et al 2014). There remain, however, modelling issues to improve in the simulation of seasonality in discharge for some regions, particularly rivers draining to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.…”

Section: Model Performance Usefulness and Improvementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe

Donnelly

Andersson

Arheimer

2015

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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214

181

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Open data make it possible to set up multi-basin models for large domains across environmental, climate and administrative boundaries. This study presents new methods for evaluating a number of aspects of multi-basin model performance, while exploring the performance of the E-HYPE_v2.1 model for several evaluation criteria in 181 independent river gauges across the European continent. Embedded model assumptions on dominant flow generating mechanisms are analysed by correlating physiographical characteristics to the flow regime. The results indicate that the model captures the spatial variability of flow and is therefore suitable for predictions in ungauged basins. The model shows good performance of long-term means and seasonality, while short-term daily variability is less well represented, especially for Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Major identified shortcomings refer to the resolution of precipitation patterns, aquifer exchanges, water extractions and regulation. This will guide the work with the next model version for which improvements in input data, processes and calibration have been identified to potentially contribute most to improved model performance.

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“…The proposed multi-parameter ensemble modelling strategy can be an effective support to the formulation of adaptive management strategies under combined pressures (Meier et al 2014). This study aimed at exploring the potential numerical model contribution to EBM.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

2017

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The use of a one-dimensional interdisciplinary numerical model of the coastal ocean as a tool contributing to the formulation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is explored. The focus is on the definition of an experimental design based on ensemble simulations, integrating variability linked to scenarios (characterised by changes in the system forcing) and to the concurrent variation of selected, and poorly constrained, model parameters. The modelling system used was previously specifically designed for the use in "data-rich" areas, so that horizontal dynamics can be resolved by a diagnostic approach and external inputs can be parameterised by nudging schemes properly calibrated. Ensembles determined by changes in the simulated environmental (physical and biogeochemical) dynamics, under joint forcing and parameterisation variations, highlight the uncertainties associated to the application of specific scenarios that are relevant to EBM, providing an assessment of the reliability of the predicted changes. The work has been carried out by implementing the coupled modelling Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 6/2, Bologna, Italy system BFM-POM1D in an area of Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), considered homogeneous from the point of view of hydrological properties, and forcing it by changing climatic (warming) and anthropogenic (reduction of the land-based nutrient input) pressure. Model parameters affected by considerable uncertainties (due to the lack of relevant observations) were varied jointly with the scenarios of change. The resulting large set of ensemble simulations provided a general estimation of the model uncertainties related to the joint variation of pressures and model parameters. The information of the model result variability aimed at conveying efficiently and comprehensibly the information on the uncertainties/reliability of the model results to non-technical EBM planners and stakeholders, in order to have the model-based information effectively contributing to EBM.

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Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

Cited by 45 publications

References 42 publications

Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe

Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

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