Ensemble modeling approach to predict the past and future climate suitability for two mangrove species along the coastal wetlands of peninsular India

Samal, Pujarini; Srivastava, Jyoti; Saraf, Pooja Nitin; Charles, Bipin; Singarasubramanian, S. R.

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101819

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…With the on‐going effects of global climate change, it is crucial to identify priority conservation areas for protection and restoration of trees within forest ecosystems. Consequently, selecting for robust spatial techniques, such as the ensemble modeling approach, emerges as a practical choice for projecting suitable habitats of the species under different climatic conditions and delineating priority areas in conservation efforts (Shabani et al 2016, Banerjee et al 2022, Samal et al 2022, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different SDMs can achieve identical prediction performance (Allouche et al 2006), but their assessments of habitat suitability may vary (Syphard and Franklin 2009). Several researchers have effectively employed ensemble models rather than single‐algorithm models to get rid of this issue (Shabani et al 2016, Samal et al 2022), and revealed that ensemble modelling overtakes single‐algorithm models (Grenouillet et al 2011, Scales et al 2016, Shabani et al 2016, Rathore et al 2019, Dang et al 2020, Dong et al 2020). This ensemble modelling combines the benefits of several single‐algorithm models and discovers the central tendency of different models (Thuiller et al 2009, Naimi and Araújo 2016) to give more robust projections than the single‐algorithm model (Araújo and New 2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GHG emissions can be reduced by preventing forest degradation and restoring the destroyed regions through tree planting and ecosystem restoration methods (Rindyastuti et al 2018). Hence, understanding and identifying the plant species' distribution shift in response to climate changes would be helpful in formulating conservation and management plans (Mishra et al 2021, Samal et al 2023.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Nitin Saraf,

Srivastava,

Munoz

et al. 2024

Nordic Journal of Botany

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The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi‐dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Nitin Saraf,

Srivastava,

Munoz

et al. 2024

Nordic Journal of Botany

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“…X. granatum growth dynamics can relate the environmental changes [31]. The mangrove species of Rhizophora apiculata and R. mucronata respond to climate and sea level fluctuations along the coast [32]. Mangrove growth is affected by salinity conditions.…”

Section: Figure 2 Pca For Relationships Between Mangrove and Gastropo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural mangrove associated gastropods at Bengkalis island, Riau Province, Indonesia: prelimanary survey

Ariyanto,

Pringgenies

2024

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Mangroves have different natural and unnatural conditions and are known as marine habitats. The aim of this research was to determine the relationship between gastropods and environmental conditions for monitoring mangrove rehabilitation. The research was conducted from 8th to 16th October 2023 at Bengkalis Island, Riau Province, Indonesia. This research used a survey method with observation of mangroves, marine biota, and environmental parameters on landward, mid ward and seaward. The measurement of marine biota was conducted using a transect of 25 cm x 25 cm and environmental parameters included pH using a pH meter, salinity using a refractometer, and sediment type analysis. pH and salinity values ranged from 5-8 and 14-35 psu. The number of gastropods found was 5 (five) specimens in Bengkalis Island. In general, based on morphology, the weight of each of the largest showed T. telescopium > L. angulifera > C. cingulata > C. obtusa > C. angulifera. The results showed that natural mangroves described more various gastropods. Salinity and pH can also be used as a major limiting factor for mangrove rehabilitation monitoring.

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An Empirical Evaluation of Ensemble Strategies in Habitat Suitability Modeling

El Alaoui,

Idri

2024

SN COMPUT. SCI.

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Ensemble modeling approach to predict the past and future climate suitability for two mangrove species along the coastal wetlands of peninsular India

Cited by 8 publications

References 73 publications

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

Natural mangrove associated gastropods at Bengkalis island, Riau Province, Indonesia: prelimanary survey

An Empirical Evaluation of Ensemble Strategies in Habitat Suitability Modeling

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