2012
DOI: 10.1002/qj.1951
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Ensemble forecasts of a flood‐producing storm: comparison of the influence of model‐state perturbations and parameter modifications

Abstract: Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
1
1
1

Citation Types

1
33
0

Year Published

2013
2013
2020
2020

Publication Types

Select...
8

Relationship

2
6

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 30 publications
(34 citation statements)
references
References 41 publications
1
33
0
Order By: Relevance
“…In future discussion this will be referred to as the ''flooding'' case. Previous analysis of this case by Leoncini et al (2011) showed that the Met Office 2.2-km ensemble on this occasion gave a 30%-40% chance of a flood-producing storm within 25 km of Edinburgh; a level of significant risk.…”
Section: A Casesmentioning
confidence: 95%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…In future discussion this will be referred to as the ''flooding'' case. Previous analysis of this case by Leoncini et al (2011) showed that the Met Office 2.2-km ensemble on this occasion gave a 30%-40% chance of a flood-producing storm within 25 km of Edinburgh; a level of significant risk.…”
Section: A Casesmentioning
confidence: 95%
“…Further investigations have been conducted into different ensemble perturbation strategies for high-resolution ensembles including initial condition perturbations (Migliorini et al 2011;Caron 2013;Kühnlein et al 2014), physics perturbations (Stensrud et al 2000;Hacker et al 2011;Gebhardt et al 2011;Vié et al 2012;Baker et al 2014), perturbation of boundary layer parameters (Martin and Xue 2006;Leoncini et al 2010;Done et al 2012), and the use of different physics schemes (Berner et al 2011;Leoncini et al 2013).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The details of the 2010 SSEF will be presented in section 3. Other successful experiments using stormscale ensemble prediction have been shown for instances of deep convection and heavy precipitation in Europe (e.g., Hohenegger et al 2008;Vi e et al 2011;Leoncini et al 2013). Many questions remain about ensemble forecasting at convection-allowing resolutions, however, including the optimal design of such an ensemble and how to balance the size of the ensemble against the computational expense of running a large number of ensemble members at high resolution (e.g., Xue et al 2011).…”
Section: B Storm-scale Ensemble Predictionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Furthermore, an ensemble approach is required to demonstrate the true impact of changes at this level, as individual realisations can show misleadingly high sensitivity to model changes, since cloud evolution can be highly sensitive to even very small perturbations (Leoncini et al, 2013;Morrison, 2012). However, in arriving at these simulations, we have used a number of variations in model configuration to be confident that the overall behaviour and sensitivities discussed below are at least qualitatively robust.…”
Section: Description Of Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%