Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan

Hsiao, Ling-Feng; Yang, Ming‐Jen; Lee, Cheng-Shang; Kuo, Hung‐Chi; Shih, Dong Sin; Tsai, Chin Cheng; Wang, Chieh Ju; Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Delia Yen Chu; Lu, Feng; Hong, Jiman; Fong, Chin Tzu; Chen, Der Song; Yeh, Tien Chiang; Huang, Ching Yuang; Guo, Wen Dar; Lin, Gwo‐Fong

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.046

Cited by 87 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The experiment began in 2010 and was the first attempt to design a high-resolution numerical ensemble weather model in Taiwan. The experiment collects worldwide observation data, including temperature, wind, surface pressure, and relative humidity, from satellites, atmospheric sounding devices, buoys, aviation routine weather reports, ships, and other available sources (e.g., Hsiao et al, 2012Hsiao et al, , 2013. TAPEX uses the outputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) produced by the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP), along with observation data, as the initial and boundary conditions for its forecasts.…”

Section: Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts For System Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Yang

Hwang

Tsai

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Urban inundation forecasting with extended lead times is useful in saving lives and property. This study proposes the integration of rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to provide probabilistic urban inundation forecasts. Utilization of ensemble precipitation forecasts can extend forecast lead times to 72 h, predicting peak flows and to allow response agencies to take necessary preparatory measures. However, ensemble precipitation forecasting is time-and resource-intensive. Using rainfall thresholds to estimate urban areas' inundation risk can decrease this complexity and save computation time. This study evaluated the performance of this system using 352 townships in Taiwan and seven typhoons during the period 2013-2015. The levels of forecast probability needed to issue inundation alerts were addressed because ensemble forecasts are probability based. This study applied six levels of forecast probability and evaluated their performance using five measures. The results showed that this forecasting system performed better before a typhoon made landfall. Geography had a strong impact at the start of the numerical weather modeling, resulting in the underestimation of rainfall forecasts. Regardless of this finding, the inundation forecast performance was highly contingent on the rainfall forecast skill. This study then tested a hybrid approach of on-site observations and rainfall forecasts to decrease the influence of numerical weather predictions and improve the forecast performance. The results of this combined system showed that forecasts with a 24 h lead time improved significantly. These findings and the hybrid approach can be applied to other hydrometeorological early warning systems to improve hazard-related forecasts.

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Section: Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts For System Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Yang

Hwang

Tsai

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…With long-term (1960 -2012), multi-scalar, and 1-km gridded SPEI/SPI datasets becoming available, researchers in various disciplines are ready to conduct various applications related to the high-resolution analyses such as verification of regional hydrological aspects associated with historical typhoon events (e.g., Hsiao et al 2013;Shih et al 2014) and interactions between vegetation and climate system (e.g., Hickler et al 2005;Heumann et al 2007;Jain et al 2009). Utilizing the established datasets, tasks are underway inside the TCCIP working group.…”

Section: Application: Interannual Variability Of Springtime Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constructing a 1-km Gridded Multi-Scalar Drought Index Dataset (1960 - 2012) in Taiwan Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index-SPEI

Weng¹

2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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An index sensitive to global warming, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), is employed in this study to construct a 1-km gridded multi-scalar drought index data bank in Taiwan. A site-and scale-dependent posterior fitness assessment procedure regarding determination of the most appropriate statistical distribution is used to standardize the station's water deficit/surplus series, thereby SPEI at various time scales. Model uncertainty at different scales is evaluated and the results show that the uncertainty is higher for the shorter 10-day scale. Contrasts in the climatic means between SPEI and popular standardized precipitation index (SPI) are compared. The climatic pre-summer monsoon heating and midsummer drought phenomena are better captured by the SPEI. The established data bank, one of the data integration tasks in the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) project, is helpful in historical drought diagnostics. It also serves as the ground truth to correct model biases while using the regional model to project hydro-climate change and impact assessment, and historical baseline in the statistical downscaling while developing the statistical relationship between the general circulation model outputs and fine-scale observations. As an example of applications, the gridded SPEI at 3-month time scale is used to study the interannual variability in springtime drought. The results show that Taiwan's southwestern plains region is most vulnerable to the risk of droughts. Composite analysis reveals that possible causes of island-wide drought link to the turnabout of cold El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase but also to the interannual variability in Pacific Decadal Oscillation when the analysis is initiated from the regional perspective.

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“…TTFRI-EPS, which is a collective effort among several academic institutes and government agencies, is an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan [13]. TTFRI-EPS started in 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The detailed information of TTFRI-EPS and the ensemble members have been well introduced in the literature. Please refer to the researches made by authors [6,13,54,55] for more details about the TTFRI-EPS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the differences among the resulting ensemble forecasts in Figure 1 are obvious. Despite this, these ensemble forecasts still provide some useful information for hydrological modelling [13,20,55], such as the probable track of typhoon and the main rainfall area. Hence, it is expected that the ensemble forecasts from TTFRI-EPS have potential as valuable references for typhoon rainfall forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effective Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions in Taiwan by Means of a SOM-Based Cluster Analysis Technique

Hong²,

Hsiao

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Typhoon rainfall is one of the most important water resources in Taiwan. However, heavy rainfall during typhoons often leads to serious disasters. Therefore, accurate typhoon rainfall forecasts are always desired for water resources managers and disaster warning systems. In this study, the quantitative rainfall forecasts from an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan are used. Furthermore, a novel strategy, which is based on the use of a self-organizing map (SOM) based cluster analysis technique, is proposed to integrate these ensemble forecasts. By means of the SOM-based cluster analysis technique, ensemble forecasts that have similar features are clustered. That is helpful for users to effectively combine these ensemble forecasts for providing better typhoon rainfall forecasts. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed strategy, actual application is conducted during five typhoon events. The results indicate that the ensemble rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are well categorized by the SOM-based cluster analysis technique. Moreover, the integrated typhoon rainfall forecasts resulting from the proposed strategy are more accurate when compared to those from the conventional method (i.e., the ensemble mean of all forecasts). In conclusion, the proposed strategy provides improved forecasts of typhoon rainfall. The improved quantitative rainfall forecasts are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems as well as water resources management systems during typhoons.

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Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan

Cited by 87 publications

References 38 publications

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts

Constructing a 1-km Gridded Multi-Scalar Drought Index Dataset (1960 - 2012) in Taiwan Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index-SPEI

Effective Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions in Taiwan by Means of a SOM-Based Cluster Analysis Technique

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