Ensemble experiments with the nonlinear circulation ocean-earth-atmosphere MPIESM model and some assessments of its stability

Abstract

The results of the ensemble numerical experiments with the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIESM) from Hamburg, Germany are presented and discussed. Started from the set of different initial conditions the model is integrated sequentially for 10 years from each of those conditions. The average fields of different model characteristics and deviations from these average states were investigated. Also, the most probable trajectories using the statistical ensemble Monte-Carlo scheme are analyzed. The stability of the model trajectory as a solution of non-linear differential system to the perturbations of the initial conditions is also numerically evaluated. The comparisons with the natural tendencies are also performed. Numerical calculations were carried out on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer of Lomonosov Moscow State University.