Ensemble Data Assimilation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

LONG-TERM GOALSThe ultimate goals is to improve tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction through further development of the regional-scale, cloud-resolving ensemble-based data assimilation and prediction system capable of efficiently assimilating in-situ and remotely sensed observations. OBJECTIVESThe primarily objectives will be (1) to examine the dynamics and predictability, as well as observation targeting and observability, of tropical cyclones primarily over the western Pacific regions in comparison to the Atlantic Basin, (2) to transfer, implement and develop new ensemble-based data assimilation and prediction techniques based on the COAMPS model, and (3) to enhance the performance of the COAMPS ensemble analysis and prediction system through inter-comparison and potential coupling with other limited-area operational models.