Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Satellite All-Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs; see Appendix A for a list of acronyms) are among the most devastating natural disasters in the tropics and mid-latitudes. They make for a triple-threat of wind damage, surge inundation, and inland/freshwater flooding, the last of which is a leading cause of fatalities in the United States from TCs (Rappaport, 2014). Accurate predictions of TCs are valuable to society because they facilitate targeted and efficient preparations for mitigating the loss of life and property.While forecasts of TC track and intensity have been continually improving over recent decades (e.g., Cangialosi et al., 2020;DeMaria et al., 2014), one important remaining challenge is accurate prediction of hazardous TC precipitation (Kidder et al., 2005). Hazardous TC precipitation events are difficult to predict because such events often result from hard-to-predict TC rain bands (e.g., Hurricane Harvey (2017); Blake & Zelinsky, 2018) and

The Influence of Radiation on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in a Forecast Model

“…If the model ALWC pattern at the initialization time matches that in observations, then a forecaster may have higher confidence in that HWRF forecast. It is also consistent with recent modeling studies which assimilated all‐sky radiance from microwave satellite measurements to improve the performance of model simulations (Minamide & Zhang, 2018; Zhang, Gopalakrishnan, 2016; Zhang, Minamide et al., 2016; Zhang, Sieron, et al., 2021; Zhang, Soden, et al., 2021). Overall, this study supports previous modeling and observational studies which suggested that radiative heating plays a critical role in bolstering TC intensification.…”

“…Recent modeling studies have demonstrated the importance of radiative processes on TC development, particularly at the early stages of development where radiative heating makes up a larger fraction of the total diabatic heating within a storm. In model simulations, suppressing radiative interactions acts to slow or inhibit tropical cyclogenesis, highlighting the potential importance of radiative heating on TC development (Bretherton et al., 2005; Bu et al., 2014; Carstens & Wing, 2020; Fovell et al., 2016; Melhauser & Zhang, 2014; Muller & Romps, 2018; Smith et al., 2020; Wing et al., 2016; Zhang, Soden, et al., 2021; Zhang, Sieron, et al., 2021). Also, the modification in radiative forcing in full‐physics numerical simulations influences the evolution of TC wind fields (Fovell et al., 2016; Melhauser & Zhang, 2014).…”

“…Despite these advances, significant room for the improvement in TC intensity forecasts remains, especially for rapid intensification events. Moreover, the role of radiative processes in the intensity forecasts has received less attention in operational models, despite a growing number of studies that have demonstrated its importance on TC genesis and intensification (Carstens & Wing, 2020; Muller & Romps, 2018; Smith et al., 2020; Wing et al., 2016; Wu, Soden, Miyamoto et al., 2021; Wu, Soden, Nolen 2021; Zhang, Sieron, et al., 2021; Zhang, Soden, et al., 2021).…”

A High‐Resolution Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Reanalysis (TMeCSR)

“…Besides expanding on validations, another important avenue of future work is to improve TMeCSR by including more observations. At the time of writing, the microwave DA capability in the PSU‐EnKF is under development (Y. Zhang et al., 2021). From the experiences of operational forecasting, the assimilation of space‐borne microwave radiometer data from sounding channels is likely to improve the quality of the TMeCSR data set (Geer et al., 2018).…”

The Potential Value of Combining Assimilation of Water Vapor Radiances and Cloud Liquid/Ice Water Path From ABI on Analyses and Forecasts for Hurricane Irma (2017)

“…For example, the radiance data, from microwave sounder [the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A (AMSU‐A) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)], microwave imager [Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS)] and humidity sounder [Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and GMI], are capable of providing thermodynamic information under the all‐sky condition. A better description of the tropical cyclone thermodynamic fields under the all‐sky condition allows for reasonable deep convective triggering and development, thus leading to an improved representation of rapid intensification through the assimilation cycle (Kazumori & Kadowaki, 2017; Tong et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2021). In addition to these impacts, all‐sky MW radiance assimilation also improves the tropospheric wind fields, resulting in better midlatitude atmospheric circulation and improves TC track prediction (Xian et al., 2019; Yang et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2022).…”