Enhancing resilience of systems to individual and systemic risk: Steps toward an integrative framework

Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan; Colon, Célian; Boza, Gergely; Poledna, Sebastian; Rovenskaya, Elena; Dieckmann, Ulf

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101868

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Social tipping points are shaped not only by human agency but also by cross-scale feedbacks in social systems (Cash et al, 2006). Having an ensemble of models exploring social tipping points enables the quantitative analysis of complex nature, including the existence of multiple entry points for abrupt changes (Hochrainer-Stigler et al, 2020b;Niamir et al, 2020). This could also shift the emphasis from technologyfocused and isolated means of analysis to an understanding of the multifaceted nature of such problems, which require governance-related approaches and methodologies.…”

Section: Methods and Models To Assess Social Tipping Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

et al. 2022

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Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system. With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt. While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes, overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised. Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal. This paper brings together three strands of literature - social tipping points, climate adaptation limits and systemic risks, which so far have been separate. Furthermore, we discuss methods and models used to illustrate the dynamics of social and adaptation tipping points in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits. We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems, which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

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Section: Methods and Models To Assess Social Tipping Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

et al. 2022

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“…Within complex and interconnected systems, individual climate change impacts and risks tend to cascade through the networks, affecting components and actors both geographically and temporally distant from the original impact (Challinor et al 2018 ; Groundstroem and Juhola 2018 ; Hochrainer-Stigler et al 2020 ). Such cross-border, systemic, cascading impacts 1 are further amplified or diminished by social, institutional, political and behavioural factors that affect the perception of the impact, the subsequent responses and the vulnerability and resilience of the system (Challinor et al 2018 ).…”

Section: Theoretical Background and Analytical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems

Groundstroem

Juhola

2021

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.

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“…In contrast to direct risk, where only the elements exposed to natural hazards need to be looked at, the hazards' effects experienced beyond these areas and elements must be considered when assessing indirect risk (Naqvi et al 2020). To achieve this, a systems perspective is beneficial and, in this case, we suggest defining a system to be a set of interconnected elements within a defined system boundary (Hochrainer-Stigler et al 2020b). The advantage of this definition is, firstly, that it creates clear borders of what a system comprises and what it does not.…”

Section: Risk-layering and Connectednessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The term connectedness is ambiguous but serves the purpose here as, indeed, it can be defined and assessed by different measures, such as Copulas (for example, strength of connection), DebtRank (for example, centrality of connected elements), proportion of total elements affected, and so on. The measure used ultimately depends on the research question at hand and, therefore, must be chosen case specific (for possible measures of connectedness we refer to Hochrainer-Stigler et al 2020b). For studying a real-world system, usually the connectedness is modelled and calibrated based on empirical data.…”

Section: Risk-layering and Connectednessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-Layering for Indirect Effects

Hochrainer‐Stigler

Reiter

2021

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Environmental risks are one of the greatest threats in the twenty-first century. Especially in the last years, the cascading impacts and risks associated with such events have received great attention as economic losses and consequences have mounted in their wake. As concerns about these ripple effects are rising, strategies to prevent and manage indirect risks are in urgent demand. However, such effects are currently barely considered in most countries and can seriously threaten global agendas such as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 or the targets set out in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015−2030. We discuss how the concept of risk-layering, which, though already applied in disaster risk management, could be expanded to include indirect effects. We point out some of the benefits, limitations, and ways forward for using this approach. To do so, we first delineate the transition of the risk-layering concept, which originated from the insurance industry, from its original use to its application in a wider context. We bring special focus to the application of risk-layering in disaster risk management and identify strategies that allow for the inclusion of indirect risks. Our main suggestion is that, while a probabilistic approach is appropriate for evaluating direct risks, a focus on connectedness is appropriate for indirect risks, which still allows for an easy link to direct risk-layering. This, so we argue, facilitates more comprehensive risk management systems apt to deal with the multi-dimensional challenges ahead.

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Enhancing resilience of systems to individual and systemic risk: Steps toward an integrative framework

Cited by 25 publications

References 47 publications

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems

Risk-Layering for Indirect Effects

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