Enhanced western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in May in recent years

Xu, Shibin; Wang, Bin

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1921-7

Cited by 18 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…It has been widely adopted to investigate issues related to climate change (Kwon et al 2007;Liu et al 2011;Xu and Wang 2014). The Lepage test statistic [HK, the same as used by Yonetani and McCabe (1994)] is represented by a combination of the standardized Wilcoxon's (W) and Ansari-Bradley's (A) statistics…”

Section: B Methods Of Changepoint Detection For Decadal Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…3a), which is triggered by the zonal SST gradient between the cold SCS and the warm NIO. The anomalous easterly flow suppresses the ISV activity and reduces the synoptic-scale disturbances over the SCS (Xu and Wang 2014), contributing to the decrease in TC activity during 2003-11. The above analysis demonstrates that the suppressed ISV activity is also a critical factor that affects the decadal reduction in the SCS TC activity occurring around the early 2000s.…”

Section: Possible Role Of the Scs Isvmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Wang et al 2012;Xu and Wang 2014). To obtain a clear picture of the climatological background of the SCS summer monsoon in the past 20 years, we plot the epochal differences (2003-11 minus 1994-2002) in summer 850-hPa wind (Fig.…”

Section: B Environmental Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Yao

Zhong

2015

Journal of Climate

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This study investigates the decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS) in the boreal summer (June-August) since the early 1990s and explores possible causes behind it. Results show that the SCS TC activity experienced an abrupt decadal decrease at around 2003/03. Compared to the TC activities from the early 1990s to 2002, the number of TCs formed in the SCS markedly decreased from 2003 through the early 2010s. Moreover, most of the TCs were primarily confined within the SCS basin during this period. The TCs that formed during the period of 2003-11 usually moved west-northwestward and rapidly weakened after making landfall. It is found that a significant decadal-scale sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred in the northern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean after 2002 while convection intensified over the tropical regions between 608 and 808E and around 1508E, respectively. The warm SST anomalies induced an anomalous subsiding flow over the SCS basin via the Walker-like (zonal) circulation. Meanwhile, anomalously dry, sinking air around 58-208N derived from local Hadley (meridional) circulation reinforced the subsiding flow of the zonal circulation. The above circulation patterns suppressed TC genesis over the northern SCS, leading to the decadal decrease in TC activity that occurred around 2002/03. In addition, in conjunction with the local anomalous easterly flow, the intraseasonal atmospheric variability over the SCS has decreased since the early 2000s. This is unfavorable for the development of synoptic-scale disturbances and may also contribute to the decadal decrease in TC activity.

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Section: B Methods Of Changepoint Detection For Decadal Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Possible Role Of the Scs Isvmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Yao

Zhong

2015

Journal of Climate

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“…The Lepage test technique is a common method used to detect quantitatively the significance of abrupt climate change points (Lepage, 1971). This technique has been widely employed to investigate issues related to decadal changes (e.g., Liu et al, 2011;Xu and Wang, 2014;Cao et al, 2019). A 9-year window is chosen to detect the decadal change using this method.…”

Section: Methods Of Change Point Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Cao

Liu

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous study has suggested a northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. This study replenishes two mechanisms to explain this inter‐decadal change in the WNP TC genesis position. The first mechanism is related to the mean state change. According to observational analysis and numerical simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model, a La Niña‐type Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change and the northern Atlantic Ocean warming in the late 1990s cause a dipole pattern of lower‐level circulation change, with cyclone over the northwestern WNP and anticyclone over the southeastern WNP. This pattern is favourable for more TC genesis in the northwestern WNP. The sensitivity experiments show that the contribution from the Pacific Ocean is larger than that from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The second mechanism is related to the change in the intra‐seasonal oscillation intensity, particularly the quasi‐biweekly variation. The activity of intra‐seasonal oscillations over the southeastern WNP shows a decadal decrease around the late 1990s. Meantime, when the intra‐seasonal oscillations with tilted structure move northwestwards, they provide a favourable condition for TC genesis to be located more northwestwards after the late 1990s.

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“…Stowasser et al (2007) indicates a continued trend towards higher proportion of the most intense TCs under future warming scenarios. Shibin and Bin (2013) found that the recent increase of TC numbers in the West North Pacific in May is the result of an enhanced summer monsoon over the South Asia and SCS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation sensitivities of the major weather regimes of the Southeast Asia region

et al. 2014

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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting model's ability to simulate major weather phenomena [dry conditions, tropical cyclones (TCs) and monsoonal flow] over East and Southeast Asia. Sensitivity tests comprising different cumulus (Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller-Janjic) and microphysics (Purdue Lin, WSM3, WSM6 and Thompson) are used together with different placement of lateral boundaries to understand and identify suitable model configuration for weather and climate simulations over the Asia region. All simulations are driven with reanalysis data and use a nominal grid spacing of 36 km, with 51 levels in the vertical. The dry season showed little sensitivity to any configuration choices, while the TC case shows high sensitivity to the cumulus scheme and low sensitivity to the microphysical scheme. Monsoon simulations displayed significant sensitivity to the placement of the lateral boundaries.

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Enhanced western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in May in recent years

Cited by 18 publications

References 24 publications

Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Simulation sensitivities of the major weather regimes of the Southeast Asia region

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