Enhanced trends in spectral greening and climate anomalies across Europe

Abstract

Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend—most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948–2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001–2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.

WITHDRAWN: Climate change, the Arab Spring, and COVID-19 impacts on landcover transformations in the Levant

“…Considering annual mean values of spectral greening trends, a slightly positive development, particularly in DJF can be observed, which aligns with global vegetation greening trends under increased CO 2 emissions and a regional tendency towards more humid conditions 25,35 . Vegetation greening, however, can trigger enhanced water de cits, particularly in drylands 36 and has recently been critically discussed 35,37,38 .…”

“…Jordan produces tomatoes, cucumbers, cabbage, and melons 6,20 , which show high crop water consumption and are not supposed to be sustainable cash crops in increasingly arid regions of the earth (<< ll in repository of yield production les after review>>) 21 . Rising CO 2 fertilization affects plant productivity 22,23 , but also enhances vegetation vulnerability to severe water shortages during mega heatwaves 24,25 .…”

“…Temperature trends in the Levant are strongly positive and temperature anomalies, such as hot drought periods, are supposed to increase in the future 25 . In addition, wet spells and extreme ooding events are predicted to occur more frequently 30 .…”

“…No signi cant changes or spectral greening trends can be observed despite a slight increase in precipitation sums. Most likely, these are controlled by extreme weather events and thus rather contribute to accelerated surface run-off than to the in ltration rate and soil moisture content 25 .…”

Impact of the 2022 Drought Shock on the Adaptive Capacity of Hungarian Agriculture

“…The 2022 European drought was the worst in at least 500 years [11]. Europe's average temperature in both August and June-August 2022 was the highest ever recorded on the continent [12,13]. The dry period of the last 20-24 months was simultaneously caused by the weakening of the jet stream, the persistent negative phase of ENSO (La Niña), the persistently strengthening of blocking anticyclones, and the absence of tropical cyclones [14].…”