Enhanced impact of the Aleutian Low on increasing the Central Pacific ENSO in recent decades

Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin; Wu, Renguang; Graf, Hans‐F.; Chen, Lin

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00350-1

Cited by 27 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(141 reference statements)

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“…11). As suggested by the previous studies 40,41,42,43 , the extratropical North Pacific forcings promote the occurrences of the central Pacific-type ENSO through the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, trade wind charging, and Rossby wave response mechanisms. They thus may contribute to the recent westward shift of the summertime ENSO.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

Qiao,

Tang,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) provides valuable predictability sources for mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies and extreme events. Here, we show that the CGT’s circulation structure has displaced westward by a half-wavelength since the late 1970s, more severely impacting heatwaves and droughts over East Europe, East Asia and southwestern America. We present convergent empirical and modelling evidence to reveal the essential role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in shaping this change. Before the late 1970s, ENSO indirectly promoted CGT by modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Recently, the ENSO–ISMR linkage was weakened, but the westward-displaced ENSO forcing was able to directly trigger a Rossby wave response at the exit of the East Asian westerly jet due to the easterly vertical shear of the zonal basic flow over the tropical western North Pacific, thus shifting the previous CGT’s North Pacific and downstream centers westward along the subtropical jet waveguide. Moreover, the state-of-the-art models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing cannot simulate such changes, indicating their origin from natural variability. The knowledge gained from this work highlights the importance of studying the impacts of changing ENSO to improve seasonal prediction of mid-latitude extreme events.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

Qiao,

Tang,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific enhance the poleward transport of warmer and wetter air masses (Clancy et al 2021) by strengthening the AL and, as a result, driving enhanced sea-ice melting in the Arctic Ocean (Liu et al 2004, Svendsen et al 2018, Screen and Deser 2019. Conversely, the feedback from extratropical SLP variability can modulate the intensity, onset, and decay (or evolution) of ENSO by inducing changes in circulation pattern and the net surface heat flux (Vimont et al 2003, Yu and Kim 2011, Chen et al 2023b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, the small sample size during the satellite era (Deser et al 2017) and the contrasting ENSO-Arctic relationships in different climate models (Ding et al 2019) make it hard to conclude their interrelationship. Recent studies suggest that the interannual ENSO-North Pacific and ENSO-Arctic relationships have undergone substantial inter-decadal changes in the past (Chen et al 2020, Aru et al 2023, Chen et al 2023b, Jahfer et al 2023. Anthropogenic warming can also modulate the strength of the tropical-extratropical relationship (Wang et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections

Jahfer,

Ha,

Chung

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The observed sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic has receded substantially in recent decades, and future model projections predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the second half of this century. Nevertheless, the impact of the Pacific on Arctic sea ice projections has yet to receive much attention. Observations show that summertime Arctic SIC growth events are related to the weakening of the Aleutian low and cooling events over the equatorial Pacific, and vice versa. We demonstrate that under various CMIP6 projections, the models in which the impact of El Niño-driven SIC loss is significantly higher than the La Niña-related SIC growth tend to turn seasonally ice-free by about 10–20 years ahead of the ensemble mean under high-emission future scenarios. We show how the non-linear impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Arctic SIC resulted in a faster decline of summertime sea ice. The ENSO-related SIC changes in the multi-model ensemble mean of Arctic SIC are considerably lower than the internal variability and anthropogenic-driven changes. However, the asymmetric interannual ENSO effects over several decades and the resultant changes in surface heat fluxes over the Arctic lead to significant differences in the timing of sea ice extinction. Our results suggest that climate models must capture the realistic tropical Pacific-Arctic teleconnection to better predict the long-term evolution of the Arctic climate.

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“…These Rossby wave trains change the precipitation patterns in Australia (Cai et al., 2011), as well as Peru and Brazil (Bazo et al., 2013; R. Chan et al., 2008; S. C. Chan et al., 2008). Simultaneously, extratropical variability can impact ENSO and IOD (e.g., Chen et al., 2023; Cheng et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Springtime Southern Hemisphere Quasi‐Stationary Planetary Wave Activities Associated With ENSO/IOD

Kim,

Song,

Chun

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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The tropical climate variabilities, such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are accompanied by changes in the tropical deep convection which can influence the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). To investigate each role of IOD and ENSO in the September‐November (SON) circulation, we examine teleconnection patterns associated with IOD and ENSO events using the ERA5 monthly averaged data from 1979 to 2020. Our approach is to calculate the power spectral density (PSD) of the sea level pressure (SLP) and meridional wind and geopotential height at 300 hPa that are decomposed by zonal wave numbers (ZWNs), and to compute their correlations with IOD and ENSO at each latitudinal band. The main results are that IOD (ENSO) is negatively (positively) correlated with PSDs of ZWN2 and ZWN3 (ZWN1) at 300 hPa in the SH middle latitudes. Considering the Rossby wave train, IOD (ENSO) considerably affects the variability of the ZWN3 (ZWN1) pattern, which influences the meridional exchange of momentum. Additionally, the relationship between IOD and ZWN3 has become tighter in recent years, which is not seen in that with ENSO. The IOD and ENSO events also modify the SLP patterns and meridional surface winds, modulating the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean. During the highly positive 2019 IOD event, the variability of the middle latitudes atmospheric circulation was considerably larger than climatology, suggesting a higher chance of more extreme weather patterns associated with more frequent intense IOD events in the warming climate.

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Enhanced impact of the Aleutian Low on increasing the Central Pacific ENSO in recent decades

Cited by 27 publications

References 77 publications

Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections

Springtime Southern Hemisphere Quasi‐Stationary Planetary Wave Activities Associated With ENSO/IOD

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