Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change

Liu, Maofeng; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Yang, Wenchang; Zhang, Bosong

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01152-0

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In response, the sea surface salinity pattern is amplified, with salty regions getting saltier and fresh regions getting fresher 16 . These temperature and salinity changes also alter ocean density and circulation, triggering global ocean heat uptake (OHU) 6,17 . Ocean warming also affects the Earth's surface albedo [18][19][20] , and sea-ice and ice-sheet 21,22 melt processes, increasing OHU 11,23 (Fig.…”

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confidence: 99%

Past and future ocean warming

Cheng

Schuckmann

Abraham

et al. 2022

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations cause a positive Earth energy imbalance (EEI), with resulting surplus heat in the climate system increasing ocean heat content (OHC) 1-3 (Fig. 1a, F1). Unprecedented oceanic warming has been observed since at least the 1950s, reaching record values from 2012-2021 (rEFs. 3,4 ). This oceanic warming has been pervasive, spreading from the surface to the abyssal layers (each responding differently; Box 1), and with the long-term oHC trend accelerating [5][6][7][8] .Owing to the large thermal inertia of the ocean, subsurface warming represents the slow response to external influences, in particular to GHG forcing (Box 1). In response to past and current carbon emissions, future ocean warming is therefore committed for many centuries 5,9 , and is related to the current acceleration of ocean warming 10 (Fig. 1a). For instance, under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, it is projected that the total upper-2,000-m OHC increase from 2017-2100 will be ~5-7 times that observed from 1970 to 2017 (rEF. 6 ). The irreversibility of this ocean warming on centennial timescales creates additional requirements for climate policy, particularly considering the widespread impacts 10,11 .Indeed, ocean warming has a multifaceted role in the Earth system via its links to the energy, water and carbon

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future ocean warming

Cheng

Schuckmann

Abraham

et al. 2022

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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“…Although we have not established a robust correlation between the weather parameters and the Danube River flow, on one hand, and the occurrence of the extreme droughts events, on the other hand (it was not the purpose of our work) we know that both acute single-year and prolonged multi-year droughts occur naturally due to variations in precipitations and other factors. Moreover, "as a result of a warming climate, the global water cycle becomes more intensified and as a result wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier" [24]. A significant situation in our analysis regarding the hydrological uncertainty is revealed by the extremely low value of the average flow of the Danube recorded in May 2011.…”

Section: Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

Roman¹,

Bucur²,

Dunca³

2021

IJEMA

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The management of water resources and specifically the energy supply from hydropower systems are strongly affected by drought events. This paper is devoted to the unfolding of legal consequences caused by an extreme hydrological drought event. The legal litigation occurred when -due to a severe deficit of water -the hydropower company that manages the hydro energy resources over the entire territory of Romania was unable to deliver the amount of electricity stipulated in the power purchase agreements. The studypresents an extensive statistical analysis of extreme hydrological drought events occurrence, using the threshold level method. The statistical analysis was applied on large historical records of the flow rates (50-90 years) and revealed the occurrence of extreme drought events, i.e. extremely low occurrence frequency phenomena. The characteristics of the historical data were studied to highlight the area where the forecast normally used in the hydro generation planning is not possible. In order to evaluate the occurrence of extreme drought phenomena, the natural monthly and annually flows of the Danube and other seven major interior rivers in Romania (Argeș, Bistrița, Olt, Lotru, Sebeș, Someș, Siret and Raul Mare) were analyzed, reflecting fairly a general picture of the flow distribution on the entire territory. The analyzed cases refer to periods when -due to a severe deficit of water -the Romanian hydropower company was unable to generate electricity according to the power purchase agreements (PPA). The results of the statistical analysis were further used as the base for the legal cases that confirmed the force majeure situations claimed by the hydropower company.

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“…Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle [1] with particular examples in France [2] and Central Europe [3], both fast and slow [4] where in the case of abrupt changes impacts on the ecosystem [5] and in long-term changes disrupt a pattern of inland moisture advection and convergence zone, increasing cloud base heights and reducing the total column liquid water content over high elevations [6]. Also, this impact has a strong response to global warming [7,8], influences its extremes [9], and in turn influences via this cycle water resources [10,11] while, conversely, the hydrological cycle influences climate [5,12] in general and may, in case of enhancement, moderate transient climate change [13]. Climate changes impact rivers through the hydrological cycle as seen in [14,15] and directly on river ecosystems as seen in the Danube [16], in the United Kingdom [17,18], the Narew river [19], and globally [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Availability for the Environmental Flow in Two Rivers of Mexico under Climate Change

González-Villela¹,

Tarabay²,

Carro³

2023

River Basin Management - Under a Changing Climate

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Adaptation to climate change requires, among others, the modification of river flow regimes to account for the change in household, agricultural, industry, and energy water consumption as well as their short/medium/long-term socioeconomic impact. In this study, the comparative analysis of the variation of the precipitation in relation to the availability of water in the Yautepec and Cuautla rivers in Morelos, Mexico, for the previous period and subsequent period is carried out, to determine the change in the availability of water in the ecosystem. In winter (February), an increase in rainfall on the Yautepec and Cuautla River was observed, where annual seasonal agriculture and Pine and Oyamel forest are the characteristic vegetation. In autumn (October), a decrease in precipitation takes place. The flows in some regions do not coincide with the increase in the percentage of precipitation (Oaxtepec and Las Estacas Stations) and point out the synergistic effect of the human use of the water resource and the effects of climate change. On Ticumán Station, the depletion of the flow only can be associated with the use of the resource by human influence. The modifications caused by alteration of a river’s flow regime and climatic change must be studied through comparative multidisciplinary studies that give to decision-makers the design of environmental flows.

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Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change

Cited by 19 publications

References 46 publications

Past and future ocean warming

Past and future ocean warming

Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

Water Availability for the Environmental Flow in Two Rivers of Mexico under Climate Change

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Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change

Cited by 19 publications

References 46 publications

Past and future ocean warming

Past and future ocean warming

Establishing Legal &lt;i&gt;Force Majeure&lt;/i&gt; Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

Water Availability for the Environmental Flow in Two Rivers of Mexico under Climate Change

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Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event