Enhanced external counterpulsation for the treatment of stable angina and heart failure: a systematic review and economic analysis

Abstract

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Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment

“…The median number of experts included in the other ten studies is 5 (mean 9.2, ranging from 3 to 23 experts per study). Details of the strategy used to select experts were reported in seven studies; in six of these [12,14,21,26,27,29] substantive expertise is an explicit criterion for expert selection. Two studies [12,26] report specifically selecting experts with different experiences, while in Stevenson et al [30], the experts were part of the study team.…”

“…Four studies [12,25,26,29] report constructing pilot exercises to assess various methods to conduct and combine elicitations. Ease of use was an important factor in choosing the appropriate method, as it predicted higher compliance by the experts, especially when a facilitator was not available [25,26,28].…”

“…Eleven of the fourteen studies report providing training in probability elicitation for the participating experts prior to undertaking the elicitation session. In seven studies [14,21,[26][27][28][29], experts were given written instructions for completing the questionnaires and in five of these background information on the modelling exercise was given. Four studies reported the presence of a facilitator during the elicitation [12,21,31,32], and in one study [12], experts attended a 2 hour preparatory training session.…”

“…Four studies [12,14,27,29] used the histogram technique and three studies [21,28,30] used the bisection method. Leal et al [26] report the use of a method based on the "six complementary intervals" method (the hybrid method), but using instead only four intervals.…”

“…In eleven studies, a smooth function was fitted to the individual elicited distributions, and for five studies [12,14,26,29,32] the smooth function was fitted to the aggregated estimates. In the group elicitation study [31], a computergenerated density function was presented in real time to the clinicians, this was amended as necessary until the whole group was satisfied with the shape.…”