Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Bosomworth, Karyn; Gaillard, Estelle

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3095

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…The terms evolved as a heuristic means to evaluate the boundary between research and policy without necessarily delving into the politics of the situation, or to challenge underlying assumptions (Preston et al, 2015;Nalau et al, 2021). Such research is effectively transdisciplinary, where high-level modeling is likely to be of limited value and datasets are likely to be incomplete or inconsistent (Carlsen et al, 2016;Bosomworth and Gaillard, 2019;Cradock-Henry et al, 2020).…”

Section: Nesting the Local In The Globalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Cradock-Henry¹,

Frame²

2021

Front. Clim.

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The parallel scenario process provides a framework for developing plausible scenarios of future conditions. Combining greenhouse gas emissions, social and economic trends, and policy responses, it enables researchers and policy makers to consider global-scale interactions, impacts and implications of climate change. Increasingly, researchers are developing extended scenarios, based on this framework, and incorporating them into adaptation planning and decision-making processes at the local level. To enable the identification of possible impacts and assess vulnerability, these local-parallel scenarios must successfully accommodate diverse knowledge systems, multiple values, and competing priorities including both “top down” modeling and “bottom-up” participatory processes. They must link across scales, to account for the ways in which global changes affect and influence decision-making in local places. Due to the growing use of scenarios, there is value in assessing these developments using criteria or, more specifically, heuristics that may be implicitly acknowledged rather than formally monitored and evaluated. In this Perspective, we reflect on various contributions regarding the value of heuristics and propose the adoption of current definitions for Relevance, Credibility, and Legitimacy for guiding local scenario development as the most useful as well as using Effectiveness for evaluation purposes. We summarize the internal trade-offs (personal time, clarity-complexity, speed-quality, push-pull) and the external stressors (equity and the role of science in society) that influence the extent to which heuristics are used as “rules of thumb,” rather than formal assessment. These heuristics may help refine the process of extending the parallel scenario framework to the local and enable cross-case comparisons.

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Section: Nesting the Local In The Globalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Cradock-Henry¹,

Frame²

2021

Front. Clim.

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“…Spatially, El Garâa basin, littoral forest or food processing companies are at stake to develop an integrated response to the territorial issues. Several cases using participatory approaches reviewed by [32], suggested there were challenges in participants understanding and accepting the need to consider multiple plausible futures and different ways of thinking across scales (regional, large scales, local communities).…”

Section: Reflection On the Limitation And The Efficacity Of The Territory Game Workhopmentioning

confidence: 99%

Actors, Scales and Spaces Dynamics Linked to Groundwater Resources use for Agriculture Production in Haouaria Plain, Tunisia. A Territory Game Approach

Ferchichi

Mekki

Elloumi

et al. 2020

Land

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Groundwater resources became a recognized enabler of important rural and socio-economic development in Mediterranean countries. However, the development of this groundwater economy is currently associated with an increased pressure on the available resource and negative implications on the socio-ecological system. Managing complex socio-ecological systems, such as those that occur in water resource management, is a multi-actor, multi-scale and dynamic decision-making process. This study aims to build a collective learning and collaborative construction tool through the territory game method. It was implemented in the Haouaria Plain, in Northern Tunisia, where farmers are currently dependent upon groundwater use for their livelihood and food security. After the diagnosis of the territorial issues, the drivers of change and a common spatial representation of the future trend of the territory, we dive into the dimensions that hinder or facilitate the implementation of scenarios and the pathways of actions. Thereafter, we analyzed these dimensions together again and reflect on the interactions among actors at different levels to transform the local territory. From the perspective of evolution scenarios for the Haouaria plain, the participants indicated the conditions that hinder or facilitate their implementation and they proposed twenty-three possible actions to be carried out in order to achieve the desired trends. They indicated how these propositions can be achieved, by whom, and where. The local stakeholders coordinate actors, activities and spaces on their territory. Spaces such as El Garâa basin, littoral forest or food processing companies are at stake to develop an integrated response to territorial issues.

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“…In some studies, pathways are used to better understand the process of adaptation, how and why change has occurred, the variability of response, and the influence of context and power relations (Fazey et al, 2015). In this article, we use adaptation pathways as a tool to facilitate engagement, build local capability and capacity, and explore potential adaptation practices (Butler et al, 2016;Bosomworth and Gaillard, 2019;Cradock-Henry et al, 2020a). This applied approach considers multiple possible futures ("pathways") and anticipates adjustments to plans as conditions change and new information is gathered (Haasnoot et al, 2013;Barnett et al, 2014;Cradock-Henry et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In many cases, pathways have been part of formal planning processes, with significant data and resource requirements, linking critical management decisions to signals and triggers derived from probabilistic modeling (Barnett et al, 2014;Kench et al, 2018;Lawrence et al, 2019). There are, however, a growing number of examples of how to develop and apply pathways at the local and regional scale, in the context of multiple, interacting stressors, using inclusive, participatory approaches (Bosomworth and Gaillard, 2019). These cases range from biodiversity and conservation (Jacobs et al, 2019), freshwater and marine management (Costa et al, 2020;Skrimizea and Parra, 2020), climate change, and more (Butler et al, 2016;Campos et al, 2016;Prober et al, 2017;Zandvoort et al, 2019;McNicol, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

Cradock-Henry

Blackett

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

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Adaptation pathways is an approach to identify, assess, and sequence climate change adaptation options over time, linking decisions to critical signals and triggers derived from scenarios of future conditions. However, conceptual differences in their development can hinder methodological advance and create a disconnect between those applying pathways approaches and the wider community of practitioners undertaking vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessments. Here, we contribute to close these gaps, advancing principles, and processes that may be used to guide the trajectory for adaptation pathways, without having to rely on data-rich or resource-intensive methods. To achieve this, concepts and practices from the broad pathways literature is combined with our own experience in developing adaptation pathways for primary industries facing the combined impacts of climate change and other, nonclimatic stressors. Each stage is guided by a goal and tools to facilitate discussions and produce feasible pathways. We illustrate the process with a case study from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, involving multiple data sources and methods in two catchments. Resulting guidelines and empirical examples are consistent with principles of adaptive management and planning and can provide a template for developing local-, regional- or issue-specific pathways elsewhere and enrich the diversity of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment practice.

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Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Cited by 37 publications

References 83 publications

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Advancing Relevance, Credibility, Legitimacy, and Effectiveness as a Heuristic for Local-Parallel Scenarios

Actors, Scales and Spaces Dynamics Linked to Groundwater Resources use for Agriculture Production in Haouaria Plain, Tunisia. A Territory Game Approach

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

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