Energy Transition Pathways to a low-carbon Europe in 2050: the degree of cooperation and the level of decentralization

Abstract

In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonisation targets to 2050.However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate "roadmaps". In this regard, this paper contributes by analysing alternative pathways derived in a unique modelling process. As part of the SET-Nav project, we defined four pathways to a clean, secure and efficient energy system -taking different routes. Two key uncertainties shape the SET-Nav pathways: the level of cooperation (i.e. cooperation versus entrenchment) and the level of decentralization (i.e. decentralization versus path dependency). All four pathways achieve an 85-95% emissions reduction by 2050. We include a broad portfolio of options under distinct framework conditions by comprehensively analysing all energy-consuming and energy-providing sectors as well as the general economic conditions. We do this by applying a unique suite of linked models developed in the SET-Nav project. By linking more than ten models, we overcome the traditional limitation of models that cover one single sector while at the same time having access to detail sectoral data and expertise. In this paper, we focus on the implications for the energy demand sectors (buildings, transport, and industry) and the electricity supply mix in Europe and compare our insights of the electricity sector to the scenarios of the recent European Commission (2018a) report "A clean Planet for all".

Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level

“…This ratio is used to downscale the regional distance by mode (in passenger-km) derived from the global IAM scenario. The external input in this illustration of the method uses the Directed Vision scenario [67] This is a scenario describing strong policy action at the European level to deliver on the EU's 2050 net-zero target; the scenario was interpreted by a suite of inter-linked sectoral and energy-system models, including ASTRA which resolves vehicle fleet and transport choices for 27 EU countries, which is broadly consistent with the IMAGE '1.5C Total' mitigation outcome. Figure 4 shows the results of the downscaling step.…”

“…Figure 4 shows the results of the downscaling step. [16] are downscaled to the UK and Sweden using ratios derived from a detailed scenario [67].…”

The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe

“…They do not discuss the use of different scenarios. Crespo del Granado et al [19] also focused on the need to rely on a good description of the power sector in the context of the energy transition. In contrast to a study that used a single LP model [18], they treated the question through a set of interacting sectoral models.…”

2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal

“…Policymakers require scienti c evidence to set climate targets, but there is a lack of research literature exploring EU-wide transition pathways. There have been a few pioneering studies exploring deep mitigation pathways [7][8][9] , but, to the best of our knowledge, no peer-reviewed study that analyses full GHG neutrality. Furthermore, no analysis has provided insights on 2040 targets, or accounted for lock-ins due to near-term trends and the implementation of 2030 policies.…”