Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Oshiro, Ken; Shiraki, Hiroto; Hasegawa, Tomoko

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4

Cited by 42 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…This study employs scenarios from five energy-economic and integrated assessment models: AIM/Enduse-Japan (Oshiro and Masui 2015;Fujimori et al 2019;Kainuma et al 2003), AIM/Hub-Japan (Fujimori et al 2017a, b, c;Silva et al 2019), DNE21 (Hosoya and Fujii 2011;Fujii and Komiyama 2015), IEEJ_Japan 2017 (Matsuo et al 2013(Matsuo et al , 2020, and TIMES-Japan (Kato and Kurosawa 2019;Kurosawa and Hagiwara 2012;Loulou et al 2005;Sato 2005). Hereafter, each model is called AIM/Enduse, AIM/Hub, DNE21, IEEJ, and TIMES-Japan.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

et al. 2021

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Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.

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Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

et al. 2021

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“…We used the AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) modelling framework as a tool for scenario quantification, which allowed us to assess macroeconomic factors globally, including the energy system, land use, agriculture, GHG emissions and climate, and has been utilised in various global and national studies 45,46,47,48,49 . The core of the modelling framework is the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model AIM/Hub (formerly named AIM/CGE).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditions for low-carbon green growth

Fujimori

Oshiro

Hasegawa

2021

Preprint

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The movement toward low-carbon human system over the last decade has been remarkable. Numerical scenarios describing future energy and land-use systems that attain climate change mitigation goals have been considered important sources of guidance for climate policymaking. However, no clear strategy for materialising green growth, i.e. vastly reducing greenhouse gas emissions without diminishing economic growth, has been outlined. Here, we describe the conditions needed for green growth under a wide range of carbon budgets. The results indicate that integration of multiple socioeconomic transformative measures would support green growth, including lowering energy demand, shifting to an environmentally friendly food system, technological progress on energy technologies and the stimulus of capital formation induced by green investment. No single measure is sufficient to offset mitigation costs fully, indicating that holistic societal transformation is needed, as the realisation of all measures depends on effective government policies as well as uncertain social and technological changes.

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“…In the energy demand sectors, numerous mitigation options are included in the sectors of industry, buildings, and transportation, such as energy-efficient devices and fuel changes. The details of these parameter assumptions have been reported previously (Fujimori et al 2019). Introduction of CCS is considered in the power and industry sectors, while CCS-ready and conversion to CCS-equipped plant after operation are not taken into account in the model.…”

Section: Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this regard, several studies have assessed the energy and economic implications of Japan's near-to mid-term emission pathways using energy system models and integrated assessment models (IAMs), that integrate relevant disciplines such as energy, economy, agriculture, and land use into single modeling framework (Fujimori et al 2019;Kato and Kurosawa 2019;Oshiro et al 2019;Silva Herran et al 2019;. Generally, these national scenario analyses have suggested that attainment of both the NDC and MCS targets without strengthening the near-term target would require rapid emission reductions between 2030 and 2050, which would involve non-linear energy system transformation during this period (Oshiro et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Generally, these national scenario analyses have suggested that attainment of both the NDC and MCS targets without strengthening the near-term target would require rapid emission reductions between 2030 and 2050, which would involve non-linear energy system transformation during this period (Oshiro et al 2017). Such rapid transformation would involve dramatic increases in the carbon price and associated mitigation costs during this period (Fujimori et al 2019;. In this regard, technological, economic and political feasibility is a critical challenge for reaching the mid-century goals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stranded investment associated with rapid energy system changes under the mid-century strategy in Japan

Oshiro

Fujimori

2020

Sustain Sci

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Japan’s mid-century strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 requires rapid energy system changes, which may lead to stranded assets in fossil fuel-related infrastructure. Existing studies have shown that massive stranding of assets in the energy supply side is possible; few studies have involved economy-wide stranded asset analysis. In this study, we estimated stranded investments in both the energy supply and demand sectors in Japan in the context of near-term goals for 2030 and the mid-century strategy. To this end, multiple emission scenarios for Japan were assessed based on various emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. The results show that stranded investments in the energy supply sectors occur mainly in coal power plants without carbon capture and storage (CCS), especially in scenarios without enhanced near-term mitigation targets. Increases of stranded investment in demand sectors were observed primarily under stringent mitigation scenarios, which exceed the 80% reduction target. In particular, investment for oil and gas heating systems in the buildings sector may be stranded at levels up to $20 billion US between 2021 and 2050. We further simulated a scenario incorporating a subsidy for devices that do not use fossil fuels as a sector-specific policy; this reduced the amount of stranded investment in the buildings sector. We confirmed the benefit of enhancing near-term mitigation targets to avoid generating stranded investments. These findings support the importance of inclusive energy and climate policy design involving not only pricing of carbon emissions but also complementary cross-sector economy-wide policies.

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Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy

Cited by 42 publications

References 46 publications

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Conditions for low-carbon green growth

Stranded investment associated with rapid energy system changes under the mid-century strategy in Japan

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