Energy System Analysis with a Focus on Future Energy Demand Projections: the case of Norway

Abstract

Post Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war is having a significant impact on energy systems worldwide, faltering investments and threatening to throttle the expansion of primary clean energy technologies even in the case of a well-structured and managed energy system, such as Norway. This unprecedented crisis requires deeper analyses of different national energy systems. Hence, providing and highlighting needed interventions and improvements in the actual energy system in the case of Norway is crucial. The focus of this study is to analyze demand-side in households, industry, and transport sectors. LEAP model, a powerful demand-side energy system analysis tool, was used to conduct the analysis. The energy demand projections for 2050 are estimated firstly by considering a population growth rate of 0.8%. Secondly, Norway has set itself an ambitious target of decreasing GHG emissions in 2030 by 55% compared to 1990 levels and 90–95% by the year 2050. It aims the diversification of the overall national energy system. From the perspective of climate change mitigation, EVs include an attractive option, other sustainable fuel sources such as H2, biofuel mixed with diesel, the use of excess heat to cover households' heating demand supplied by industry, and integration of large-scale heat pumps driven by RES during off-peak demand is applied. Energy demand projections are uncertain, and the main goal is to show how different scenario projections up to 2050 affect the energy system of Norway, showing that the combined global warming potential (GWP) will be around 28.9 million metric CO2 from 66 million metric CO2 tones released in the current account scenario.