Energy Resilience Impact of Supply Chain Network Disruption to Military Microgrids

Abstract

The ability to provide uninterrupted power to military installations is paramount in executing a country’s national defense strategy. Microgrid architectures increase installation energy resilience through redundant local generation sources and the capability for grid independence. However, deliberate attacks from near-peer competitors can disrupt the associated supply chain network, thereby affecting mission critical loads. Utilizing an integrated discrete-time Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network approach, we investigate disruption propagation throughout a supply chain network and quantify its mission impact on an islanded microgrid. We propose a novel methodology and an associated metric we term “energy resilience impact” to identify and address supply chain disruption risks to energy security. The proposed methodology addresses a gap in the literature and practice where it is assumed supply chains will not be disrupted during incidents involving microgrids. A case study of a fictional military installation is presented to demonstrate how installation energy managers can adopt this methodology for the design and improvement of military microgrids. The fictional case study shows how supply chain disruptions can impact the ability of a microgrid to successfully supply electricity to critical loads throughout an islanding event.

Toward Defense Supply Chain Disruption Management: A Research Agenda for Defense Supply Chain Resilience

“…Ripple effects occur when the impacts of an event cascade throughout the supply chain instead of remaining confined to a single node or portion of the network (Anuat, Bossuyt, and Pollman, 2022). Their propagation across the supply chain can further amplify the initial impact beyond what might reasonably be anticipated (Xiong et al, 2020).…”

“…Supply chain disruptions are not new but have been brought to public attention most visibly by the large-scale effects on supply chains resulting from the volcanic eruptions in Iceland (2010), the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (2020 onwards), and, most recently, the cascading impacts of the war in Ukraine (February 2022 and ongoing); these disruptions have often been exacerbated by contemporaneous and unpredicted spikes in demand. These and other disruptive events have clearly demonstrated that disruptions can propagate through supply chains more quickly than decisionmakers can effectively respond to them and can cripple companies' operations and deliveries of products (Abogaye et al, 2022;Jones, 2022;Anuat, Van Bossuyt, and Pollman, 2022;Hitchens, 2020;Janes Intelligence Briefings, 2020;CNBC, 2019;Ferry and Poindexter, 2016). This disruption can be detrimental and even catastrophic to economic activity and can have highly damaging impacts on defense operations and the ability of armed forces to carry out their tasks.…”

Military Energy Resilience Models and Climate: Do Our Models Adequately Consider Climate Risks?

“…Even if the military base is prepared, any vulnerabilities in the local community will spill over because most military personnel and their families live off base in the local community. The military base would find itself in the position of having to support the local community [10].…”

Defense Installation Energy Resilience for Changing Operational Requirements

“…Miramar and Twentynine Palms are grid-connected microgrids [31]. Microgrids may include renewable energy resources [12,36], which may increase resilience by withstanding disruptions due to fuel supply disruptions such as the 2021 Colonial Pipeline cyberattack which crippled fuel deliveries across its 5500-mile length along the United States east coast [37,38]. The literature includes methods for microgrid design to consider resilience as well as capacity, cost, reliability and sustainability with diesel generators, photovoltaic (PV) sources, battery energy storage system (BESS), and energy management system (EMS) components [5,39].…”