Energy Landscape Fragmentation: Basilicata Region (Italy) Study Case

Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020

et al. 2020

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The main objective of the present study was to integrate a logistic regression (LR) model and a geographic information system (GIS) technique to analyze the urban transformations patterns and investigate the relationship between urban transformation dynamics and its various determinant forces. The case study concerns the territory of the province of Matera, in the region of Basilicata (southern Italy) where the main transformation phenomenon corresponds to the dynamics of urban sprinkling. The definition of the variables, corresponding to the dynamics of urban fragmentation and compaction, will be carried out through spatial analyses concerning the temporal variation of the sprinkling index. The relationships between the dependent variables (Y) fragmentation and compaction and the independent variables (X) referring to different factors will be analyzed through two logistic regressions. The time interval considered is 1998-2013 and the determining factors (driving forces) refer to physical characteristics, proximity analysis to roads or cities, socioeconomic factors and land use policies. The results consist of two maps showing the probability of variation of the dependent variables whose accuracy will be evaluated using the Relative Operational Characteristic Index (ROC).

Section: Results and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Determinants of Urban Fragmentation and Compaction Phenomena in the Province of Matera (Basilicata Region - Italy)

Dotoli

Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020

et al. 2020

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“…In addition to these are to be considered the simplifications deriving from the Corine Land Cover Map whose resolution fails to capture the detail of certain transformations which, however, even with the same surface area involved, have different impacts in terms of ecosystem services. This is the case, for example, of the phenomena of urban growth already studied by the authors [ 24 – 26 ] and that highlight the inefficiency of the sprinkling process with which urban settlements continue to grow despite the marked depopulation that characterizes the overwhelming majority of municipalities. However, as highlighted in previous works [ 22 – 24 ], the ecosystem services approach is particularly effective in interpreting territorial transformations by providing useful tools both in the ex-ante planning phase [ 27 ] and in the assessment of cumulative impacts [ 28 , 29 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Assessing the Impact of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services Value

Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020

Scorza

et al. 2020

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Land use change significantly affects ecosystem services provision. This impact, however, is difficult to assess and thus often neglected in policy making. It is therefore the task of territorial planning discipline to explore methodological approaches capable of making explicit complex relationships in order to use them as tools for effectively designing the sustainable development. In this paper, we report changes in land use over a 28-year period considering the territory of the Basilicata region. Our aim is to translate these changes in ecosystem services values, highlighting potentials of a framework able to integrate monetary figures into a larger approach based on the interactions between biomes and the meaning of human well-being more closely linked to the economics sector. The results show that the greatest loss occurred at the detriment of wooded areas and agricultural mosaic while bare land and arable land increased. Several municipalities experienced significant changes involving above all the classes in the agricultural compartment. The growth of urban settlements took place everywhere affecting to a much greater extent the most important centers, the only ones not subject to depopulation. Our estimate quantifies these changes in a total annual loss of ecosystem service delivery higher than €39 million with some municipalities where this loss corresponds to a significant part of GDP. Reversing the perspective, moreover, the internal areas emerge where, also due to depopulation, the monetization of ecosystem services leads to pro capita amounts equivalent to multiples of GDP per capita. The study sets the basis for an approach oriented towards defining tangible criteria for assessing the sustainability of territorial transformations and land use change.

“…The results of this study show that the likelihood of land change will generate more fragmentation processes. In the case analyzed but, more generally, in the Basilicata region, fragmentation has also been caused, in recent years, by other components of the settlement system such as renewable energy installations [ 19 , 35 ] and oil wells [ 20 ]. Urban transformations have a significant impact on the quality of the landscape, the ecosystem services provisioning [ 36 – 38 ] and the costs to the population of transforming the city in no sustainable way [ 39 , 40 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Driving Factors of Urban Transformation in the Province of Potenza (Basilicata Region-Italy)

Ieluzzi

Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020

et al. 2020

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The main transformation dynamics in the province of Potenza territory (Basilicata region in the south of Italy) correspond to those of urban sprinkling. The urban sprinkling phenomena is typical of mainly mountainous internal areas with indices of settlement density and artificial coverage ratios very low. The temporal and spatial analysis of the urban sprinkling phenomenon gives a picture of the transformation dynamics of the territory, i.e. the phenomena of fragmentation and compaction of the urban territory. Through a logistic regression, the driving factors that have affected the dynamics of urban transformation and specifically the phenomena of fragmentation and compaction between 1998 and 2013 will be analyzed. The two transformation phenomena (dependent variables Y), will be analyzed separately and built on the basis of the variation of the sprinkling index in the analyzed period. In the model, eleven independent variables concerning physical characteristics, proximity analysis, socioeconomic characteristics and the urban policies or constraints, have been considered. The result of the logistic regression consists of two probability maps of change of the dependent variable Y from non-urban to fragmented or compacted. The indexes of the relative operational characteristic (ROC) of 0.85 and 0.84 respectively for compaction and fragmentation, testify the goodness of the model.