Energy Imbalance Between the Earth and Space Controls the Climate

Abstract

The climate system depends at an extremely complex set of long-term (about 30 years or more) physical processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere systems, which, in turn, are influenced mainly quasi-bicentennial variations of the total solar irradiance (TSI). The TSI decline phase started around 1990. The onset of the Grand minimum phase of the TSI quasibicentennial cycle of the Maunder type is predicted in the 27th ±1 cycle in 2043±11. Long period of deficiency of absorbed solar energy since about 1990 was not compensated by a decrease in the Earth's thermal energy emitted into space, since it does not have time to cool down due to thermal inertia, and it continues to radiate heat in the same high volumes. Solar cooling has started. As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a long negative energy balance, which will ensure a slight decrease in temperature. However, this slight decrease in temperature is extremely important as a trigger mechanism for the subsequent chain effects of secondary causal effects of feedback that will greatly enhance the cooling. This will certainly lead to the onset of a phase of deep cooling of the climate approximately in the year 2070±11. The temperature is always cooler (with some time delay) in the during long-term periods of TSI decline phase of the TSI quasi-bicentennial cycle and warmer in the during periods of its growth phase. The climate sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon dioxide abundance, due to the significant overlap of the spectral absorption bands of the water vapor and carbon dioxide, decreases as a result of a significant increase in the concentration of water vapor directly in the near-surface layer of the troposphere during warming. The impact of a long-term cloud coverage growth on climate change is also virtually nonexistent.

The Growth of the Water Vapor Content During Warming Will Lead to a Decrease in the Sensitivity of the Climate to an Increase in the Concentration of Carbon Dioxide

“…Рост концентрации Н 2 O делает температуру менее чувствительной к увеличению содержания СO 2 в атмосфере при потеплении и при дальнейшем повышении концентрации СO 2 практически невозможно ожидать существенного дополнительного увеличения им поглощения излучения поверхности Земли. Поэтому воздействие СO 2 на изменение климата является вторичным и незначительным (при его нынешнем высоком уровне более 415 ppmV) по сравнению с последствиями долгосрочного изменения мощности солнечного излучения квазидвухвекового цикла на внешней границе атмосферы, являющегося основным фактором изменения температуры, а не наоборот -вариации концентрации СO 2 [5].…”