Energy from the earth - Deep geothermal as a resource for the future?

Hirschberg, Stefan; Wiemer, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter

doi:10.3218/3655-8

Cited by 27 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 157 publications

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“…"## + 𝐶 ! "#$%&"'() = 20.9+1 = 21.9 million CHF; taken from CH-base case of Hirschberg et al, 2015).…”

Section: Illustrative Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…LCOE) due to an injection-well being abandoned with probability π (right) computed from the ratio of fatality curves failing to pass a safety threshold (left). The price increase might counterbalance the heat credit (here 0.07 CHF/kWh;Hirschberg et al, 2015). The LCOE is further increased by risk aversion, not knowing in advance the underground feedback conditions to which the ATLS would apply.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Autonomous Decision-Making Against Induced Seismicity in Deep Fluid Injections

Mignan

Broccardo

Wiemer³

et al. 2018

Springer Series in Geomechanics and Geoengineering

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The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geoenergy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.

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“…"## + 𝐶 ! "#$%&"'() = 20.9+1 = 21.9 million CHF; taken from CH-base case of Hirschberg et al, 2015).…”

Section: Illustrative Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Autonomous Decision-Making Against Induced Seismicity in Deep Fluid Injections

Mignan

Broccardo

Wiemer³

et al. 2018

Springer Series in Geomechanics and Geoengineering

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show abstract

“…Geothermal systems are to produce 7% of electricity and 20% of district heating supply by 2050 (Art. 33;Hirschberg et al, 2015;Panos et al, 2021). Development of geothermal systems also require public support, and recent studies have begun documenting citizens' perceptions of it (Cousse et al, 2021;Manzella et al, 2019;Volken et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short and long-term dominance of negative information in shaping public energy perceptions: The case of shallow geothermal systems

et al. 2022

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Potential of ambient seismic noise techniques to monitor the St. Gallen geothermal site (Switzerland)

2015

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The failures of two recent deep geothermal energy projects in Switzerland (Basel, 2006; St. Gallen, 2013) have again highlighted that one of the key challenges for the successful development and operation of deep underground heat exchangers is to control the risk of inducing potentially hazardous seismic events. In St. Gallen, after an injection test and two acid injections that were accompanied by a small number of micro-earthquakes (M L < 0.2), operators were surprised by an uncontrolled gas release from the formation (gas kick). The "killing" procedures that had to be initiated following standard drilling procedures led to a M L 3.5 earthquake. With ambient seismic noise cross correlations from nine stations, we observe a significant loss of waveform coherence that we can horizontally and vertically constrain to the injection location of the fluid. The loss of waveform coherence starts with the onset of the fluid injections 4 days prior to the gas kick. We interpret the loss of coherence as a local perturbation of the medium. We show how ambient seismic noise analysis can be used to assess the aseismic response of the subsurface to geomechanical well operations and how this method could have helped to recognize the unexpected reservoir dynamics at an earlier stage than the microseismic response alone, allowed.

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Energy from the earth - Deep geothermal as a resource for the future?

Cited by 27 publications

References 157 publications

Autonomous Decision-Making Against Induced Seismicity in Deep Fluid Injections

Autonomous Decision-Making Against Induced Seismicity in Deep Fluid Injections

Short and long-term dominance of negative information in shaping public energy perceptions: The case of shallow geothermal systems

Potential of ambient seismic noise techniques to monitor the St. Gallen geothermal site (Switzerland)

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