Energy efficiency and rebound effects in German industry – evidence from macroeconometric modeling

Lutz, Christian; Banning, Maximilian; Ahmann, Lara; Flaute, Markus

doi:10.1080/09535314.2021.1937953

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Energy efficiency improvements are regarded by many as a costeffective mitigation strategy (Szklo and Schaeffer, 2007;Morrow et al, 2015;Comodi et al, 2016;Malinauskaite et al, 2019), although they may only allow a modest reduction in emissions of 5-10% (Talaei et al, 2020;Lei et al, 2021). It has also been argued that a higher energy efficiency afforded by technology development could lead to an increase in refining throughput across the world (Lutz et al, 2021), a phenomenon known as rebound effect and one that would partially negate the benefits. Clearly, energy efficiency improvements cannot be the sole driver for decarbonization of the refining sector.…”

Section: Energy Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Pathway Towards Net-Zero Emissions in Oil Refineries

et al. 2022

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Rapid industrialization and urbanization have increased the demand for both energy and mobility services across the globe, with accompanying increases in greenhouse gas emissions. This short paper analyzes strategic measures for the abatement of CO2 emissions from oil refinery operations. A case study involving a large conversion refinery shows that the use of post-combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) may only be practical for large combined emission point sources, leaving about 30% of site-wide emissions unaddressed. A combination of post-combustion CCS with a CO2 capture rate well above 90% and other mitigation measures such as fuel substitution and emission offsets is needed to transition towards carbon-neutral refinery operations. All of these technologies must be configured to minimize environmental burden shifting and scope 2 emissions, whilst doing so cost-effectively to improve energy access and affordability. In the long run, scope 3 emissions from the combustion of refinery products and flaring must also be addressed. The use of synthetic fuels and alternative feedstocks such as liquefied plastic waste, instead of crude oil, could present a growth opportunity in a circular carbon economy.

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Section: Energy Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Pathway Towards Net-Zero Emissions in Oil Refineries

et al. 2022

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“…The analysis is based on results from the macro-econometric input-output model PANTA RHEI, which was most recently used to estimate the socio-economic effects of the German Climate Change Act and alternative target paths (Lutz et al 2021a) and to model rebound effects in the energy consumption of industries (Lutz et al 2021b). The model's philosophy and properties as well as its applications are summarized in Lehr and Lutz (2020, pp 476-477).…”

Section: Panta Rheimentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Macroeconomic Developments in Ten Scenarios of Energy System Transformation in Germany – National and Regional Results

Ulrich

Naegler

Becker

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundMany different strategies have already been proposed for the transformation of the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this in an integrated and consistent framework is presented here. MethodsThe comparison of ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows the evaluation across a broad range of different strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. ResultsThe effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar in average from 2030 to 2050 between the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher results for the socioeconomic variables. Sectorally, employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from very ambitious transformation, as not only RE expansion varies and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050.ConclusionsFrom the relatively small differences between the scenarios it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.

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Effects of Energy Price Shocks on Germany’s Economy and Private Households

Lutz

Becker

2023

Studies in Energy, Resource and Environmental Economics

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The massive rise in energy prices in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and the Western sanctions against Russia is putting a great strain on the economy and consumers. Germany is particularly dependent on Russian energy imports. With the desire to reduce dependence on Russian imports, the pressure for climate neutrality is intensifying. The reports of the IPCC recently show again the high pressure to act. The EU is aiming for climate neutrality by 2050, and Germany would like to reach the target by 2045.This chapter aims to examine the macroeconomic effects of the drastic price increase for energy sources in Germany. For this purpose, a scenario in which energy prices on the world market experience a significant shock is compared with a reference scenario until 2030. The scenarios are implemented in the economy–energy–environment model PANTA RHEI. The scenario comparison shows the different effects of energy price increase on important macroeconomic variables such as price level for consumers, GDP, and employment. Distributional effects across income classes are considered with particular attention to low-income households, which spend higher shares of their income for energy and cannot afford to pay for energy efficiency improvement. A brief comparison with other modelling studies shows that climate mitigation has a positive effect on the economy as a whole and can be an important lever for containing the losses caused by the current high energy prices.

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Energy efficiency and rebound effects in German industry – evidence from macroeconometric modeling

Cited by 11 publications

References 18 publications

A Pathway Towards Net-Zero Emissions in Oil Refineries

A Pathway Towards Net-Zero Emissions in Oil Refineries

Comparison of Macroeconomic Developments in Ten Scenarios of Energy System Transformation in Germany – National and Regional Results

Effects of Energy Price Shocks on Germany’s Economy and Private Households

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